Bitcoin: Time-Based Capitulation

As of 3 Nov 2026, 12:43 UTC. Updated hourly as new videos are read.

BTC near publication: $63,8024-hour candle close · 14 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTC · BTC/USDT

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks flipped down to up.

Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: my guess is what's going to happen is Bitcoin will find a low in June, rally in July, and then people are going to be saying, ▶ 09:22 Said again while their call of 5 Jun 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 60.4k when said, 62.7k on 5 Jul 2026 (+3.8%).
Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: keep following timebased capitulation, which would entail Bitcoin finding a low probably sometime later this year. ▶ 11:38 Said again while their call of 18 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%).

If Bitcoin drops another $20,000 in a big capitulation into June, then no target given (next months): if the market were to absolutely nuke into June, let's say we get a big drop by Bitcoin and it goes down another $20,000, then I don't know that it would make sense to stay bearish into October. ▶ 12:01
If Bitcoin holds support at 60K, with a low in February and a sweep of the low in June, then a final drop in Q4 is still possible, then no target given (next months): But if Bitcoin holds support at say 60K like it did back in 2018, just held support at 6K. ▶ 12:15
If Bitcoin holds 60K throughout all of Q4, which would make that the low, then no target given (this cycle): If Bitcoin is holding 60K throughout all of Q4, then maybe that is the low. ▶ 14:14
If Price-based capitulation where all the onchain indicators reset, then no target given (next months): If all the onchain indicators reset, then I don't think it would make sense to stay bearish into Q4. ▶ 09:48

60k: Support (Same pattern as 2018, when price held support and swept the low in June): But if Bitcoin holds support at say 60K like it did back in 2018, just held support at 6K. ▶ 12:15
54k: Target (A move to 54K would take price below the realized price): You know, if Bitcoin were to go to 54K, we would go below the realized price. ▶ 13:14

Their own position: Holding. And I do still have some Bitcoin. And I think it actually makes sense to start accumulating here

Central bank rate hike (Bank of Japan, transcribed as "Bankage Pen"), undated: let's say it goes a little lower around the time the Bankage Pen raises rates, which is coming up.