Bitcoin track record: which crypto YouTube analysts have been right

Next days: calls graded after 7 days

All analysts together: 154 of 291 graded calls right, a balanced score of 52%. A move under 1% is a draw; a sideways call is right within 4.5%.

Next weeks: calls graded after 30 days

All analysts together: 60 of 136 graded calls right, a balanced score of 44%. A move under 2.5% is a draw; a sideways call is right within 11.5%.

Next months: calls graded after 4 months

All analysts together: 24 of 46 graded calls right, a balanced score of 53%. A move under 6.5% is a draw; a sideways call is right within 27%. Nobody gets a grade on this horizon: a year holds only a few separate windows this long.

This cycle: calls graded after 1 year

All analysts together: 6 of 21 graded calls right. A move under 20% is a draw; a sideways call is right within 58%. Nobody gets a grade on this horizon: a year holds only a few separate windows this long.

How grading works

• A call is an analyst's direction on a horizon. It opens when first stated and is graded 7, 30, 120 and 365 days later against the price at opening. A restated call counts once; a change of mind opens a second call. A move smaller than the draw band is a draw.
• The score starts from how often they had said up when price then rose and down when it fell, averaged, so always saying the same thing scores 50. It is pulled toward 50 as if they had 10 more calls at 50, so a short record cannot score near 0 or 100.
• The grade is a letter for the score: A 60+ (sharp), B 55+ (beats a coin flip), C 45+ (coin flip), D 40+ (worse than a coin flip), F under 40 (fade them). It needs 10 graded calls with at least 3 each way, on the days and weeks horizons only; before that an analyst is early. A grade is proven when the 95% range of the score clears 50, which takes at least 20 calls with 5 each way. An A or an F also needs a proven record; until then the letter stops at B or D.
• Analysts choose when to speak, and the channels were picked because they are popular, not at random. Records are still short, so most analysts are not judged yet.
• From June 2026 on, most videos were read within days of upload. Earlier ones, and August 2026, were read in October 2026, about one video per channel every three days, from what was still on YouTube: a video an analyst has since deleted is missing from that part of the record. A video deleted after we read it stays in.