Data Scientist WARNS Bitcoin Holders ⮕ “History is REPEATING!”

On Bitcoin

Guest Ben Cowen · not counted as Altcoin Daily's view.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: Perhaps you go back up to the bear market resistance band by like late July, early August. ▶ 21:26
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: which is why I I eventually we likely will have that final drop below the 60k level ▶ 21:01
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up: there's a good chance that a lot of the bearish narratives next year aren't going to matter because the market will then be bullish again. ▶ 26:30

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin falls to the balance price, a little under 40k, then no target given (this cycle): it's around 40k, right? And it's like a little bit less than 40k. That would be kind of the the spot where you know, there's no reason to be bearish. ▶ 15:06

Levels named

• 57k: Support (The late June/early July 2026 low mirrors the 2018 low at 5,700): And the low that we just formed in late June, early July of 2026 [419s] was 57,000. ▶ 06:54
• 53k: Support (Realized price. Bitcoin has historically gone below it in midterm years.): And the realized price is at around 53K. So, if you go below 53K, let's say you go into like the high 40s or low 50s ▶ 13:14
• 40k: Their view is wrong past this (Balance price. Prior cycle bottoms occurred below it, so a drop there ends the bearish case.): it's around 40k, right? And it's like a little bit less than 40k. That would be kind of the the spot where you know, there's no reason to be bearish. ▶ 15:06

Their own position: Bought. Normally, if you just DCA Bitcoin, that's what I do in the second half of midterm years, it works out pretty well

Dates named

• Rate hike scare and 10-20% stock market drop in late summer, undated: If you do get a rate hike or just a scare of one, the stock market dropping 10% to 20% would probably be enough to completely pivot what the market's expectations are of monetary policy