Did Lower Inflation Just Trigger A Huge Bitcoin Relief Rally?

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks went from leaning down to expecting down; cycle flipped up to down.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Expects down: I'm still expecting some sort of weakness before the end of July, some sort of a pullback whether, ▶ 27:45
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): divergence as well on Bitcoin, maybe there's going to be a sizable relief rally. How high could that ▶ 21:04
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): 65 to 75% that would mean Bitcoin would find a bottom between $31,500 and $44,000. ▶ 13:12

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin breaks above $69,000 and consolidates above 70K, then 87.5k (next months): If you can break above $69,000 and consolidate, let's call it above 70K specifically, that can start to open up a possible move all the way to the yearly open, which would be over here at about $87,476. ▶ 21:15
• If USDT dominance breaks down from its rising wedge, then no target given (next weeks): And if you do get a breakdown over here, it probably elicits quite a large relief rally. ▶ 17:44

Levels named

• 87.5k: Target (yearly open): move all the way to the yearly open, which would be over here at about $87,476. ▶ 21:23
• 69k: Target (take-profit target of the existing long trade): You set the 59K trade to take the profit at 69K. ▶ 28:38
• 31.5–44k: Target (diminishing drawdowns of 65 to 75% versus prior bear markets): Bitcoin would find a bottom between $31,500 and $44,000. ▶ 13:12

Their own position: Holding. for now, long trade still remains. I haven't adjusted anything. We move the stops to break even.

Dates named

• CPI inflation data came in lower than forecast on 14 Jul 2026: Yesterday we had a big drop off in the CPI inflation data which consequently caused a pump in the prices.
• Core PPI release on 15 Jul 2026: there's no inflation shock on the PPI, but instead it comes out less than what was forecasted, that's probably going to do the job to get things up.
• Clarity Act Senate vote, undated: We'll see what happens to the markets once this Clarity Act hopefully, hopefully comes through.