Bitcoin's Corrective Setup Into the Fed: The 55 EMA Target, the Overshoot and the Bounce

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks went from expecting sideways to leaning sideways.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up: but by end of week kind of expect a bounce and then and then the week after that, you know, another bounce temp as well. ▶ 02:56 Said again while their call of 16 Sep 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 75.8k when said, 84k on 23 Sep 2026 (+10.8%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Sideways: I do think that overall Bitcoin is still poised to hold this range into end of September here. ▶ 06:00 Said again while their call of 16 Sep 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 75.8k when said, 81.4k on 16 Oct 2026 (+7.3%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up: When when when we fast forward 90 days out, we're looking at a medium return of about 19%. ▶ 09:33 Said again while their call of 10 Jul 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 7 Nov 2026, against 64k when said.

If this, then that

• If If Bitcoin reclaims the midband / yesterday's high of about $79,000, we're very likely to see another try above $80,000, then 80k (next weeks): Yesterday's high of about what $79,000 bucks. If Bitcoin can reclaim that, that is when I'd say in terms of timing, we're very likely going to see another try above $80,000. ▶ 11:21
• If If Bitcoin breaks the current lows, the corrective target is 73,000 and change, then 73k (next days): if Bitcoin does break the current lows, and I, you know, I still would be looking at this as a corrective target, 73,000 bucks and change. ▶ 16:45

Levels named

• 79k: Resistance (yesterday's high, which is the midband on the indicator): Yesterday's high of about what $79,000 bucks. If Bitcoin can reclaim that, that is when I'd say in terms of timing, we're very likely going to see another try above $80,000. ▶ 11:21
• 75.9k: Resistance (close needed for the daily stochastic to cross up): Again if that's going to happen today Bitcoin would be forced to close above 75900. ▶ 11:03
• 73.1k: Target (minimum target to the green 55 EMA after the 5/21 EMA corrective cross on the daily): the minimum target down to the green 55 EMA is initiated just based off of that. That as of right now is at 73,145. ▶ 04:09
• 70.3k: Target (median overshoot of about 3.8% below the 55 EMA after past tests): if you do go for the median return, that would be a three spot 8% uh, you know, decline from that 55 EMA, which would put Bitcoin at 70,326. ▶ 05:31

Their own position: Bought, no leverage; would buy at 75.7k. let's actually do that uh not at market can get better price right now. How about that? Uh we'll do it at 75694.

Dates named

• FOMC rate decision on 16 Sep 2026: Uh but basically, the hour of the FOMC, that is the fun action.
• Quad witching on 18 Sep 2026: As well as a quad witching event coming in on Friday, too.