Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks moved down to waiting; months flipped up to down.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Waiting on a level: What's important is what happens over the next say two weeks. And if Bitcoin is still holding above the 200 day moving average in say a couple more weeks, ▶ 36:33
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: a similar type of move and you just simply get one final sell-off into Q4, the midterm year, bare market, four-year cycle completes ▶ 26:13 Said again while their call of 24 Jul 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 21 Nov 2026, against 65.1k when said.

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin keeps holding above the 200 day moving average over the next couple of weeks, then no target given (this cycle, by in say a couple more weeks): if Bitcoin is still holding above the 200 day moving average in say a couple more weeks, then I would argue at that point the odds really start to go up ▶ 36:35
• If No Q4 drop happens by the end of the year, then no target given (this cycle, by by the end of the year): if by the end of the year it it nothing like that happens, life goes on and I will I will flip bullish and I won't care ▶ 32:50

Levels named

• 60k: Support (2018 kept finding support near 6,000 and this cycle has found it near 60,000): we kept finding support around 6,000 around 6,000 just like this time it was been it's been around 60,000 ▶ 11:20

Their own position: Bought. I've already got a little bit of Bitcoin from when we went below it in July, when we went below.3 risk in July, in early July.

Dates named

• Jackson Hole speech by Kevin Walsh on 22 Aug 2026: Maybe it happens tomorrow uh with the Jackson Hole speech by, you know, by Kevin Walsh.
• Clarity Act push, undated: Bitcoin surges 12% in two days as Trump crypto execs lead last ditch effort for the Clarity Act.