Bitcoin: The Winds of Winter

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months flipped down to up.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): I can't promise you that the next move is to the downside, but I do think that there is a I do think there's a likelihood that that is the way it breaks ▶ 03:14 The call was wrong: 63.1k when said, 76.9k on 15 Sep 2026 (+22.0%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up: the four-year cycle headwind within just a couple of months or so will likely become a tailwind ▶ 08:15 Said again while their call of 25 Jun 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 61.3k when said, 81.7k on 23 Oct 2026 (+33.4%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): it scares a lot of people, it ushers in the market cycle bottom. And then from there, ideally, Bitcoin then begins a new bull market. ▶ 03:26 Said again while their call of 1 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 1 Feb 2027, against 78.9k when said.

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin breaking below 60K, as in 2018 and 2019 when breaking 6K led to the market cycle bottom, then no target given (this cycle): people blame that for Bitcoin breaking below 60K, but remember in both 2019 and 2018, we were holding 6K for a while. Once we broke it, it immediately led to the market cycle bottom ▶ 09:01

Levels named

• 60k: Support (In 2018 and 2019 a break of the long-held 6K level immediately led to the cycle bottom): people blame that for Bitcoin breaking below 60K, but remember in both 2019 and 2018, we were holding 6K for a while. Once we broke it, it immediately led to the market cycle bottom ▶ 09:01

Their own position: Bought; would buy at 60k. like in 2022, I bought Bitcoin starting in in the summer. Kind of like this time. Like I started in the summer once we went below 60k.

Dates named

• Fed deciding to raise rates, undated: And if if those if those narratives don't work, then maybe it's the Fed just finally deciding to raise rates.