Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

On Bitcoin

No change since their last video.

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• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: maybe the way it plays out is how it played out in 2018 where you get, you know, another little dip in mid July and then it goes up into late July or mid August, ▶ 24:41 Said again while their call of 6 Jul 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 63.3k when said, 64.2k on 5 Aug 2026 (+1.4%), under the 2.5% it takes to count.
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: finds another lower high and heads back down in August, September time frame. ▶ 24:49 Said again while their call of 18 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up: I think there's a good chance, maybe 60 to 65% chance that by November 21st, which is the main conference day, I think the low will be in. ▶ 28:38 Said again while their call of 1 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 1 Feb 2027, against 78.9k when said.

If this, then that

• If a capitulation at the end of the year like 2018, 2020, 2022 or 2014, then no target given (this cycle): If there is a capitulation at the end of the year like 2018, like 2020 or like 2022 or like 2014, it usually just sets up the next bull market, right? ▶ 25:20

Levels named

• 53k: Target (Bitcoin has gone below the realized price in every prior midterm year): And so, the argument is is like we will likely go below it again. And that's currently at around, you know, 53K. ▶ 11:24
• 38k: Target (balance price, which Bitcoin has historically gone below as well): The balance price is a lot lower. that's down at around 38K. Historically, we've gone below that as well. ▶ 11:30

Their own position: Not said.