cryptoBitcoin: Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles
Benjamin Cowen · · 33:21 · Watch on YouTube
As of . Updated hourly as new videos are read.
BTC near publication: $73,4614-hour candle close · 30 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · BTC/USDT
On Bitcoin
No change since their last video.
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- Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading):
where we know Bitcoin could stay weak through the midterm year like it normally does.
▶ 28:55 Said again while their call of 18 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%). - This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading):
Maybe Bitcoin's just bottoming at the end of the midterm year like it normally does.
▶ 29:09 Said again while their call of 1 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 1 Feb 2027, against 78.9k when said.
If this, then that
- If Bitcoin is below Q1 late in the midterm year, then no target given (this cycle, by later this year):
If later this year, you're looking at Bitcoin and it's below say Q1 and it's late midterm year, just consider that maybe this time's not different.
▶ 29:00
Levels named
- 62k: Support (1% quantile of the asymmetric quantile model):
the lower quantile, the 1% quantile is at around 62K.
▶ 16:24 - 57–58k: Target (price equal to the quantile reached in late 2022):
it would put the price at around 57 to 58,000
▶ 18:46 - 51–52k: Target (price equal to the quantile reached in the 2020 pandemic low):
It'd be about 51k. 51 to 52k.
▶ 20:05 - 48–49k: Target (price equal to the quantile reached in the 2015 double bottom):
Today, that would correspond roughly to around 48k, 48 to 49k.
▶ 21:06
Their own position: Not said.