Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months went from leaning down to expecting down.

Views

• Next months (next 2–6 months): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): I still say there's like a 70 to 75% chance that Bitcoin eventually goes below the low that has already been set. ▶ 19:08 Said again while their call of 18 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%).

If this, then that

• If Stock market rallies to new all-time highs, then no target given (next months): If the stock market were to rally up to new all-time highs, there's a higher likelihood that then Bitcoin could get even slightly back above the 21-week EMA for a little while ▶ 12:40
• If Stock market gets rejected, then no target given (next months): the stock market, if it were to get rejected, would likely correspond to Bitcoin also getting rejected. ▶ 12:34

Levels named

• 78–79k: Resistance (20-week SMA and 21-week EMA form the bear market resistance band, which tends to act as resistance in bear markets): essentially, the bear market resistance band is around that $78,000 to $79,000 level. ▶ 00:52
• 60k: Support (6K was an important level in the prior cycle, but price eventually went lower): the fact that 60K was always going to be an important level because we can see in a prior cycle 6K was an important level ▶ 16:03
• 40–50k: Support (possible low if price backtests the trend line in October): if you backtest this trend line in October, that would correspond to the 40 to 50k range. ▶ 07:36

Their own position: No position. that's the reason why I elect not to take part in all these countertrend rallies.