Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months moved down to waiting.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down: the window of weakness is open right now, and I think Bitcoin will likely go down into the first half of April before bouncing. ▶ 17:45 Said again while their call of 12 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 70.4k when said, 73.7k on 11 Apr 2026 (+4.6%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Waiting on 60k (timeframe is our reading): If Bitcoin goes below 60k in early April, that low will likely mark a low for a while. ▶ 14:57
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): there's a good chance Bitcoin will eventually go below 54K. Because if you zoom out, every bear market Bitcoin went below the realized price. ▶ 22:12 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin goes below 60k in early April, then no target given (next months, by early April): If Bitcoin goes below 60k in early April, that low will likely mark a low for a while. ▶ 14:57
• If Bitcoin stays above 60k in early April, then no target given (next months, by early April): If Bitcoin stays above 60k in early April, then there's another good chance we'll see that weakness going in again going back to the summer. ▶ 15:09
• If first half of April passes and Bitcoin does not break below 60k, then no target given (next weeks, by first half of April): if the first half of April comes and goes and Bitcoin does not break below 60k, then at that point, I think it'll make more sense to flip short-term bullish in the May. ▶ 11:11

Levels named

• 60k: Support (line between a low for a while and further weakness into summer): If Bitcoin goes below 60k in early April, that low will likely mark a low for a while. ▶ 14:57
• 58–59k: Support (roughly corresponds to the 200-week moving average): a 58k Bitcoin fairly roughly corresponds to the 200-week moving average. Maybe about 59k, okay? ▶ 16:21
• 54k: Support (realized price; every bear market went below it): the realized price right now for Bitcoin is around 54K. ▶ 22:03
• 30–40k: Support (diminishing bear market drawdowns point to roughly a 70% drop): around 40k plus or minus a few thousand dollars, the 30 to 40k range could be an ideal area for a low eventually. ▶ 19:40
• 39k: Support (balanced price has historically marked the macro low): The balanced price currently is around 39,000. ▶ 23:13

Their own position: Sold. basically offloaded the Bitcoin I wanted to offload late last year.