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Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

Benjamin Cowen · · 26:45 · Watch on YouTube

As of . Updated hourly as new videos are read.

BTC near publication: $86,6704-hour candle close · 26 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · BTC/USDT

ETH near publication: $2,8174-hour candle close · 26 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · ETH/USDT

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: cycle went from leaning down to expecting down.

Views

  • This cycle (next 6–18 months): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): And I believe that Bitcoin is in a bare market. And that's not a bad thing, right? ▶ 01:58 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

Their own position: Not said.

On Ethereum

Changed since their last video: months flipped up to down; cycle went from expecting down to leaning down.

Views

  • Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: but what I think makes the most amount of sense is for Ethereum kind of slowly bleed down here into the fair value into the summer months. ▶ 10:46 The call was right: 2.82k when said, 2.11k on 26 May 2026 (−25.0%).
  • This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): Now we're stuck in the regression band for a while and then hopefully we can bet out of that next cycle. ▶ 26:10 Said again while their call of 7 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 4.51k when said, 2.57k on 7 Oct 2026 (−43.0%).

If this, then that

  • If Ethereum gets above the 21-week EMA on a couple of weekly closes, then no target given (next months): if Ethereum can get above the 21week EMA on a couple of weekly closes, then I'll pivot and I'll say ▶ 22:45

Levels named

  • 2.4k: Target (50% drawdown from the all-time high, as in the last two cycles): 50% down puts you closer to like 2400 or so, which I do think Ethereum will likely get to again. ▶ 14:10
  • 2k: Target (log regression trend line fair value): And that'll essentially put Ethereum around that fair value, which is approximately $2,000, right? ▶ 10:52

Their own position: Bought. and that was where I publicly said I'm buying Ethereum for the first time this cycle.

Dates named

  • Bank of Japan possible rate hike, undated: In fact, the Bank of Japan might have to raise rates again soon, which historically has not been a good thing for crypto.