Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks flipped up to down; months flipped up to down.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down: I could see a sweep of the low by the end of the year, early next year. ▶ 09:55 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 91.7k when said, 86k on 17 Dec 2025 (−6.2%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: I've kind of set a price target of approximately 60 to 70k by the summer, but I don't know exactly. ▶ 10:46 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): I think the four-year cycle takes precedent. I think that we defer to the four-year cycle until proven otherwise. ▶ 03:42 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

Levels named

• 74k: Support (Macro low that Bitcoin may sweep, possibly before the rally to the bull market support band): So, this cycle, it would look like potentially rallying up to the bull market support band before Bitcoin goes below 74K. ▶ 08:23
• 60–70k: Target (200-week SMA is always in play in midterm years and is coming up to the 60 to 70k area): I've kind of set a price target of approximately 60 to 70k by the summer, but I don't know exactly. ▶ 10:46

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Powell replaced as Fed chair, market prices in more rate cuts, undated: Powell gets replaced as chair of the Federal Reserve, and then the market starts pricing in a lot more rate cuts.