Bitcoin: A Different Kind of Bear Market?

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months flipped up to down.

Views

• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: what if we do get a bare market rally at some point back to 100K and it draws people back in only to eventually go lower into the summer of 2026. I think that's very well likely what will happen. ▶ 04:26 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): In that sense, it makes sense to say we're in a bare market, right? Like it makes sense. ▶ 05:05 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If this, then that

• If If this is a bear market from a non-euphoric top like the one that started in 2019, then 60–70k (next months, by by the summer): you could have a scenario where Bitcoin does something like this and it kind of drops down to 60 to 70K by the summer ▶ 14:50

Levels named

• 100k: Target (bear market rally that draws people back in before lower lows): what if we do get a bare market rally at some point back to 100K and it draws people back in only to eventually go lower into the summer of 2026. ▶ 04:26
• 60k: Support (realized price, which price fell below in the 2019 bear market): the realized price right now is almost 60K. ▶ 14:05
• 56k: Target (in midterm years price tends to return to the 200-week moving average): it tends to return to the 200E moving average, which, oh, by the way, is currently at 56K. ▶ 14:14

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Fed chair Powell likely replaced, possible aggressive rate cuts, undated: The Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, is likely going to be replaced in the summer 2026.