Bitcoin Falls Below the 50 Week Moving Average

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months flipped up to down; cycle went from expecting down to leaning down.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Waiting on 103k: But I will say if if Bitcoin were to go back above 103K by the end of this week, then I would say the odds go back to 50/50. ▶ 12:38
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: then that 200E moving average is going to be the focus for the next few months. Okay? Because normally we kind of drop back down into that. ▶ 15:14 The call was right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down: I think that next year will be a down year, right? Like I I think it it will be down even if the very first part of it starts off ▶ 06:51 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin rallies back to 103K and gets a weekly close above the 50 week moving average by the end of this week, then no target given (next weeks, by by the end of this week): if if Bitcoin were to go back above 103K by the end of this week, then I would say the odds go back to 50/50. ▶ 12:40
• If a second weekly close below the 50 week moving average, then no target given (this cycle): If you get a second close below, the odds go up. considerably that the top is already in. ▶ 12:49
• If the weekly close below the 50 week is just a fake out and the cycle top is not in, then no target given (next days, by within the next day or two): if it is just a fake out, you would expect a rally by Bitcoin within the next day or two. ▶ 13:12

Levels named

• 103k: Resistance (a weekly close back above the 50 week moving average would make it 50/50 that the top is in): if if Bitcoin were to go back above 103K by the end of this week, then I would say the odds go back to 50/50. ▶ 12:40
• 100k: Target (no one knows direction; upside as likely as downside): Bitcoin could go to 80K tomorrow just as likely as it could go back up to 100K. ▶ 12:25
• 80k: Target (no one knows direction; downside as likely as upside): Bitcoin could go to 80K tomorrow just as likely as it could go back up to 100K. ▶ 12:25
• 60–70k: Target (possible roughly 50% drop back to the 200 week moving average): where you get a 50% drop back to the 200E moving average around 60 to 70K ▶ 07:54

Their own position: Not said.