The Fed Announces QT Will End in December

On Bitcoin

No change since their last video.

Views

• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down: Now I will say that I do firmly believe that the top for this market cycle is going to be the fourth quarter of this of this year. ▶ 09:36 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin is not able to move higher by December, then no target given (next months, by by December): then it's probably not going to for a while. What's probably going to happen is we're going to go into this phase for 2026 where the market starts to just slowly go down ▶ 26:28
• If it plays out the same as 2019 and the top is in, then no target given (next weeks): if it does play out the same and the top is in, then you might see something similar where there's a big drop that occurs around the time that QT actually ends ▶ 25:20
• If Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs and to 130-140k, then 130–140k (next months): But if we go to new all-time highs and we go to 130 140, there's a good chance we're flirting with the market cycle top. ▶ 30:26

Levels named

• 140k: Target (10x of the 2019 top near 14k, which he calls extremely dubious): We were to 10x that today it put you around 140. ▶ 29:31
• 74k: Support (A 50% drop from a 2019-style 10x top would land on the May low): 50% drop would get you to 74K, which is exactly the low that Bitcoin had uh back in, you know, back in May. That would act likely as a support level. ▶ 29:51
• 60k: Support (The next low after that is around the prior all-time high): the next low after that was like around in the 60k range which again is the prior all-time high. ▶ 30:07

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Fed ends quantitative tightening on 1 Dec 2025: they decided to conclude the reduction of their aggregate securities holdings on December 1 on December 1st.