cryptoEthereum: Dubious Speculation
Benjamin Cowen · · 18:04 · Watch on YouTube
As of . Updated hourly as new videos are read.
BTC near publication: $121,8464-hour candle close · 7 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC · BTC/USDT
ETH near publication: $4,5124-hour candle close · 7 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC · ETH/USDT
On Bitcoin
No change since their last video.
Views
- Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up:
So, we said Bitcoin will likely put in a new all-time high in Q4.
▶ 14:18 The call was wrong: 121.8k when said, 74.1k on 4 Feb 2026 (−39.2%).
If this, then that
- If weekly closes by Bitcoin below the 50-week moving average, then no target given (this cycle):
if we get weekly closes by Bitcoin below the 50week moving average, which is now around 101K, then there's a good chance the cycle would be over at that point.
▶ 06:49
Levels named
- 101k: Their view is wrong past this (Weekly closes below the 50-week moving average would signal the cycle may be over):
if we get weekly closes by Bitcoin below the 50week moving average, which is now around 101K, then there's a good chance the cycle would be over at that point.
▶ 06:49
Their own position: Not said.
On Ethereum
Views
- Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Sideways (timeframe is our reading):
So apparently the way I see it playing out is in the short term, you're likely going to see continued chop in this range so that the bull market support band catches up.
▶ 03:11 The call was wrong: 4.51k when said, 3.3k on 6 Nov 2025 (−26.9%). - Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading):
What I think's going to happen is it'll chop for a while. It'll then break through, go into the market cycle top, and then we'll get the 2026 bare market.
▶ 17:43 The call was wrong: 4.51k when said, 2.15k on 4 Feb 2026 (−52.3%). - This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading):
go into the market cycle top, and then we'll get the 2026 bare market. That's how I see it playing out.
▶ 17:48 The call was right: 4.51k when said, 2.57k on 7 Oct 2026 (−43.0%).
If this, then that
- If Bank of Japan raises rates at the end of October, then no target given (next weeks):
if if the Bank of Tran does raise rates at the end of October, it could just be a nice final low that Ethereum might form before going into its final rally
▶ 16:54
Levels named
- 4k: Support (Ethereum has generally found support when it comes back down to 4K):
but anytime it comes back down to 4K, it generally finds support.
▶ 10:34
Their own position: Sold. I was skimming a little bit in preparation for the pullback.
Dates named
- Bank of Japan possible rate hike in late October, undated:
there's like a 55 to 60% chance arguably that the Bank of Japan might raise rates in late October.