Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

Benjamin Cowen · 20 Nov 2025, 20:53 UTC · 49:59 · Watch on YouTube

As of 3 Nov 2026, 11:33 UTC. Updated hourly as new videos are read.

BTC near publication: $86,9214-hour candle close · 20 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC · BTC/USDT

ETH near publication: $2,8484-hour candle close · 20 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC · ETH/USDT

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks flipped down to up; months flipped up to down.

Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): My guess is that there will be a counter trend rally by Bitcoin before too long. I could see it happening maybe in December. ▶ 18:10 Said again while their call of 23 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 108.4k when said, 84.4k on 22 Nov 2025 (−22.1%).
Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: there's a realistic outcome here where Bitcoin revisits the 200E moving average in the coming months. ▶ 06:11 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%).
This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down: it seems increasingly likely that the top is in for the cycle. And if that's the case, then the next low is probably uh potentially as late as October of 2026. ▶ 49:41 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If Bitcoin gets back above the 50-week moving average before the weekly close, then no target given (this cycle, by before the weekly close): If Bitcoin could get back above the 50we moving average before the weekly close then I'd be willing to change my mind. ▶ 00:46

110k: Resistance (200 day moving average where a counter trend rally could fail): Now, right now the 200 day moving average is at 110K. ▶ 26:57
100k: Target (counter trend rally timing from 2022 would take it to late February): there's still a high probability outcome where Bitcoin gets a rally back above 100K at some point. It might take until February, you know. ▶ 27:11
87k: Support (20-month moving average where price currently sits): the 20-month moving average is 87K. So that's where we are right now. ▶ 45:45
74k: Support (last cycle's major low before the counter trend rally corresponds to 74K this cycle): Bitcoin should find a low above 74K and then try to rally back up to the 50week moving average ▶ 18:34
70k: Support, expected to break (cycle low expected between May and October 2026): I would look for a low kind of between May and October, right? So that's kind of where I would look for a low and I think it will go below 70K will be my guess. ▶ 25:03

Their own position: Not said.

Changed since their last video: weeks flipped down to up.

Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): Maybe you get an interest rate cut if the Fed wants to throw us a bone and then you could see sort of a rally back up by Ethereum. ▶ 09:17 The call was right: 2.85k when said, 2.98k on 20 Dec 2025 (+4.6%).

2.1k: Support (a drop to 2100 would diminish odds of a new all-time high, as with Tesla's 55% drawdown): I hope it doesn't drop to 2100 because if it does I think the odds of a new all-time high significantly diminish. ▶ 41:34

Their own position: Not said.

Possible Fed rate cut in December, undated: Maybe the Fed does cut rates in December.
Quantitative tightening ends in December, undated: QT ends in December, right? Who knows what the narrative is, but I think you need at some point