cryptoBitcoin: Cliff Dwellers
Benjamin Cowen · · 58:02 · Watch on YouTube
As of . Updated hourly as new videos are read.
BTC near publication: $103,1974-hour candle close · 4 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC · BTC/USDT
ETH near publication: $3,5084-hour candle close · 4 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC · ETH/USDT
On Bitcoin
Changed since their last video: weeks moved up to sideways.
Views
- Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Sideways (timeframe is our reading):
I'm still of the belief that the most likely outcome is we're in this phase where Bitcoin is like chopping around instead of being instead of chopping around 10K, it's chopping around 100K.
▶ 29:25 The call was right: 103.2k when said, 93k on 4 Dec 2025 (−9.9%). - This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down:
Like I tend to think that next year will be a bare market year. And my guess is that you're witnessing the topping process of Bitcoin.
▶ 23:46 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).
If this, then that
- If multiple weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, then no target given (this cycle):
on multiple weekly closes below the 50we moving average, that would likely be confirmation that the top is at on weekly closes, right?
▶ 24:08 - If Bitcoin goes below 100K, spends time there and does not get back above it, then no target given (this cycle):
if it starts going below 100K and spending time there and not getting back above 100K, you know, it might be worth biting the bullet
▶ 43:50
Levels named
- 103k: Resistance (50-week moving average; Bitcoin needs to get back above it):
right now the 50we is at 103 a little below 103 like right around 103k.
▶ 56:21 - 100k: Support (round number Bitcoin is fighting to stay above):
and today it's fighting to stay above 100K. Right?
▶ 08:24 - 69k: Target (2026 bear market low could go below the prior all-time high):
the bare market low of 2026, I could see Bitcoin going down, you know, probably below the prior all-time high of 69K, right?
▶ 20:35 - 55k: Target (200-week SMA is always a decent target in a bear market):
the two in a week SMA is always a decent target. And we could even go below that. And that's currently at around 50 or yeah, 55K.
▶ 20:52
Their own position: Not said.
On Ethereum
Changed since their last video: cycle flipped up to down.
Views
- This cycle (next 6–18 months): Expects down:
I do believe that in 2026 Ethereum will return to its lower regression band.
▶ 54:42 Said again while their call of 7 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 4.51k when said, 2.57k on 7 Oct 2026 (−43.0%).
Their own position: Holding; would buy at 1.4k. I did skim some off the top up there, but I still have a majority of the Ethereum position that I bought back then at $1,400.
Dates named
- Quantitative tightening ends, undated:
And we know that quantitative tightening will be coming to an end uh in in December.
- Expected December rate cut, undated:
But we're going to have another rate cut more than likely in December.