Bitcoin Whales Are Selling: The Bearish On-Chain Reality (2026 Outlook)

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks went from expecting down to leaning down.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down: my base case is that the middle of Q1, you know, we're probably going to see further downside action. ▶ 07:14

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin breaks above 107K and holds there on daily and weekly time frames, then no target given (next months): Unless Bitcoin breaks above 107K, holds there on, you know, daily time frame, weekly time frame. If it can do that, then I'm just going to completely change my bias. ▶ 07:05

Levels named

• 107k: Resistance (Failing to break above it leaves a macro lower high, implying further downside): unless Bitcoin can break above and hold above 107K, this is just a lower high and a macro lower high at that ▶ 06:34
• 100k: Target (Bullish for a trade because a hit of 100K is more likely than a break of 81K): I think it's much more likely we hit 100K than than we break below this previous wick level, 81K. ▶ 07:28
• 99–100k: Resistance (Short-term holder cost basis lines up with the falling 50-week moving average): the short-term coster basis which is we just saw that level like 99 almost 100K is lining up perfectly with the 50-week moving average. ▶ 06:04
• 81k: Support, expected to hold (Previous wick low): I think it's much more likely we hit 100K than than we break below this previous wick level, 81K. ▶ 07:28
• 60k: Support (Would be happy to buy more at 60K): Not really. I'm just going to be quite happy that it's gone to 60K and I'll buy some at 60K as well. ▶ 08:26

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Chicago PMI reading on 5 Jan 2026: We've got the next reading on January 5th, so you know on Monday and we can actually gleam a little bit of information from Chicago.