The Crypto Bull Market is ……..! [Ben Cowen]

On Bitcoin

Guest Ben Cowen · not counted as Crypto Banter's view.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I still think it's possible that we get one final move, but I, and I that's what I'm hoping for, but ▶ 07:03
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: I think it's going to play out where next year you're going to have the markets are going to start to struggle. Crypto is going to start to struggle next year ▶ 36:40
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): I just think that there's a good chance the top is in this quarter and then whatever month it is, look for a low at least 6 months later, ▶ 15:22

If this, then that

• If multiple closes below 100K (below the 50-week SMA), then no target given (this cycle): the 50-week SMA is around like 103K. So, put it this way, if we get multiple closes below 100K, then the cycle is likely over. ▶ 05:13
• If two weekly closes in a row below the 50-week Moving Average, then no target given (this cycle): If we get any weekly closes, two weekly closes in a row below the 50-week Moving Average, I'm probably out. ▶ 07:09

Levels named

• 103k: Support (Losing the 50-week moving average on weekly closes historically marked the end of prior cycles): the 50-week SMA is around like 103K. So, put it this way, if we get multiple closes below 100K, then the cycle is likely over. ▶ 05:13
• 100k: Their view is wrong past this (Multiple closes below 100K, under the 50-week SMA, would mean the cycle is likely over): the 50-week SMA is around like 103K. So, put it this way, if we get multiple closes below 100K, then the cycle is likely over. ▶ 05:13

Their own position: Not said.

On Ethereum

Guest Ben Cowen · not counted as Crypto Banter's view.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: by the time you get out to say mid-November, I could see you getting one final rally by Ethereum to potentially another all-time high and hopefully above 5K. ▶ 39:17
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: But then by the time you get to 2026, all the bad data starts coming in that we were ignoring for Q4. And then you and then you get your 2026 bear market. ▶ 39:55

Levels named

• 5k: Target (Rally tied to the expected mid-November end of the government shutdown): by the time you get out to say mid-November, I could see you getting one final rally by Ethereum to potentially another all-time high and hopefully above 5K. ▶ 39:17

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Fed meeting, possible end of Quantitative Tightening on 29 Oct 2025: we're talking about this on the 29th, but they're going to have a meeting on the 29th and there is a chance that they're going to end Quantitative Tightening.
• End of US government shutdown, expected mid-November, undated: the highest probability for the end of the government shutdown I think right now is mid-November.
• Powell replaced by a more dovish Fed chair, mid-2026, undated: but then by mid-2026, Jerome Powell is likely going to be replaced and he's going to be replaced by someone who's likely going to be cutting interest rates and wanting to turn the money printer back on.