Expect The Bitcoin Bottom By….. (With Ben Cowen)

On Bitcoin

Guest Ben Cowen · not counted as Crypto Banter's view.

Views

• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: So it certainly seems like we will likely have another leg down at some point. Usually that next period of weakness occurs going into April and May. ▶ 10:36
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down: So, my guess is that the low will be in October. I think there is going to be a big counter trend rally before then. ▶ 03:08

Levels named

• 55k: Target (Realized price; in mid-term years Bitcoin goes below it first): Today the realized price is 55K, the balance price is 40K. If you see Bitcoin below those levels later this year, I think that would offer a pretty good opportunity. ▶ 11:54
• 45–50k: Target (Supply in profit and loss metrics have not crossed yet; every prior low came after they crossed): Once they do cross, I think right now it corresponds somewhere in the 45 to 50K range. ▶ 10:11
• 40k: Target (Balance price; in mid-term years Bitcoin goes below it after the realized price): Today the realized price is 55K, the balance price is 40K. If you see Bitcoin below those levels later this year, I think that would offer a pretty good opportunity. ▶ 11:54
• 40k: Target (A roughly 70% drawdown from the 120K high, as in the 2019 drop including the recession): 70% down from 120 would take us to 40,000. In fact, after the 2019 top, I know the pandemic is not a great example, ▶ 09:23

Their own position: No position. I would wait on crypto. I am waiting mostly on domestic index funds for the United States.