Hold or Fold? Cost Basis, Market Phases & the Singularity ⚡

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks flipped down to up; months flipped down to up.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: it could shock markets higher and trigger a broad reversal starting in Feb. There's always a 2 to four week lag between this PMI data and the price of Bitcoin reacting to it. ▶ 18:49 The call was wrong: 78.9k when said, 73.4k on 4 Mar 2026 (−6.9%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): buying at 75K now is a very good riskreward because I believe we're way closer to the bottom than we are to the top. ▶ 09:34 Said again while their call of 11 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 111.2k when said, 71.4k on 8 Feb 2026 (−35.8%).

Levels named

• 75k: Support (good risk-reward to buy here, closer to the bottom than the top): buying at 75K now is a very good riskreward because I believe we're way closer to the bottom than we are to the top. ▶ 09:34
• 69k: Support (69K was the 2021 high and the pre-election level in November 2024, both historic support): Support level. Then we have the 69K from 4th of November 2024, the night before the US presidential election. Also historic support ▶ 16:31

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• ISM/PMI jump to 52.6 on 2 Feb 2026: it could shock markets higher and trigger a broad reversal starting in Feb. There's always a 2 to four week lag between this PMI data and the price of Bitcoin reacting to it.
• Clarity Act / digital commodity market structure bill, undated: he would sign it and we would have major blockchain tokens as commodities which would be which would unleash all hell on the market on a bullish perspective.