Bitcoin This Won’t End Well… FOR BEARS

Lark Davis · 23 Apr 2026, 09:55 UTC · 18:52 · Watch on YouTube

As of 3 Nov 2026, 12:35 UTC. Updated hourly as new videos are read.

BTC near publication: $78,0494-hour candle close · 23 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTC · BTC/USDT

ETH near publication: $2,3444-hour candle close · 23 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTC · ETH/USDT

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days flipped up to down.

Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): Short-term there could be some localized sell-offs. Stocks had a crazy run, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, even ▶ 00:04 The call was right: 78k when said, 76.2k on 30 Apr 2026 (−2.4%).
Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): At the very least we should be getting a pretty strong bull market rally if not heading into new highs. ▶ 08:13 Said again while their call of 20 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 67.8k when said, 63.7k on 20 Jun 2026 (−6.1%), under the 6.5% it takes to count.
This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): So, the idea that this was a mid-cycle top at 126k and actually the stock market's going to run until 2020 slate 2027, maybe mid-2028 before finally topping out. ▶ 04:11 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 123.4k when said, 85.6k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.7%).

If Weekly close at 79k or above, then no target given (next weeks): I really want to see a weekly close at 79k or above because that's where the real magic's going to happen here. ▶ 07:44
If Bitcoin repeats gold's breakout with a 150% move from $126,000, then 300k (this cycle): So, if Bitcoin was to do a similar thing and have a 150% move from $126,000, guess what? That gives us $300,000 Bitcoin ▶ 02:50

300k: Target (4.236 Fibonacci line, top of the range target for the cycle): That gives us $300,000 Bitcoin, which would be an absolute top of the range price target for the cycle. ▶ 02:56
83k: Resistance (anchored VWAP from the all-time high): Got to get that daily close over 83K, ideally a weekly close over it. ▶ 03:38
79.5k: Resistance (fifth test of the top of the channel): Price action got up to 79,500 dollars yesterday, pulled back. Current candle on the daily is in the red. ▶ 06:54
79k: Resistance (weekly close wanted above this level): I really want to see a weekly close at 79k or above because that's where the real magic's going to happen here. ▶ 07:44
75k: Support (top of the trend line, lines up with the 28-day EMA): If we pull back to the top of this trend line around 75K, that's totally cool and normal. ▶ 07:31

Their own position: Not said.

No change since their last video.

No view on any horizon.

If Breakout from the triangle pattern, then 2.64k (next weeks): This triangle pattern, if we get the breakout, is absolutely explosive and at least gets us back up to the 200-day EMA here around 2640, ▶ 12:04

2.64k: Target (200-day EMA, price target for current long): This triangle pattern, if we get the breakout, is absolutely explosive and at least gets us back up to the 200-day EMA here around 2640, ▶ 12:04

Their own position: Holding. which is where the price target is for my current long on ETH if it doesn't get stopped out in the next few hours.

Clarity Act passing, undated: Kevin Warsh gets gets in, rates get cut, Clarity Act gets passed, Saylor buys another half million BTC in the next year.