Something Big is Going to Happen on Bitcoin (here's how to prepare)

On Bitcoin

Guest Ben Cowen · not counted as Alessio Rastani's view.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): there's a really high chance that Bitcoin will put in a new low relatively soon ▶ 17:51
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down: that's the reason why I think that by the end of this year we we likely will see Bitcoin trading below 60k ▶ 00:50

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin goes significantly below 60k, then no target given (this cycle): Um but if we go below if we go significantly below 60k then I'd be willing to flip bullish. ▶ 18:41
• If Bitcoin only bounces to 60k again in April, then no target given (next months, by in April): what if we just bounce to 60k again in April then I would probably remain bearish, you know, for a little bit longer. ▶ 18:34

Levels named

• 60k: Support (February low; still need to prove it won't go lower): a February low of 60k still has There's still a window of weakness that we have to prove that it won't go lower than 60k ▶ 09:35
• 54–55k: Target (realized price; every prior bear market went below it): Now the realized price right now is around 55k, 54k, 54k. So to me it makes sense that Bitcoin will likely go below that level at some point this year. ▶ 15:00
• 39k: Target (balanced price, the more bearish target): The balanced price is quite a bit lower uncomfortably lower at at 39k. ▶ 15:23
• 37k: Target (a roughly 70% drawdown, as bear-market drawdowns have shrunk each cycle): 70% down is around 30 37k. So right below the balanced price. ▶ 16:08

Their own position: Not said.