Every Red September in Bitcoin's History Did This First. All 9 of 9.

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days moved sideways to down; weeks moved up to sideways.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): I do look for this move to, you know, likely find its its its low somewhere around that green 55 EMA. ▶ 09:49 The call was wrong: 77.8k when said, 79.7k on 5 Sep 2026 (+2.3%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Sideways: So, I would be expecting this range to continue on at least for another week, maybe another week after that. ▶ 11:02 Said again while their call of 10 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 64.3k when said, 78.6k on 9 Sep 2026 (+22.2%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I think that that would be very uncharacteristic of what likely is a macro reversal here. ▶ 12:04 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If daily close below 78,700 (support band of upper band one), then 76k (next days): daily closure today below 78,700. Again, on CME, there is a bit of a premium over spot price action as of right now. If that does happen, I would be looking for a return down ▶ 11:26
• If Bitcoin breaks down below the 76,000 area, then 72k (next days): If Bitcoin does break down below there, I mean, you know, we do have probably a lot lower to go, you know, somewhere around 72,000 bucks is where I'd be looking towards. ▶ 11:54
• If Bitcoin closes the bi-monthly candle above 82,800, then 200k (this cycle, by before Monday): Bitcoin above 82,800 excellent. Phenomenal becomes incredibly easy to call for moves up $200,000 and beyond. ▶ 16:03
• If Bitcoin reclaims this month's high at the 38.2 level on the monthly HPR, then 114.5k (next months): it is going to be very difficult not to make an argument, a strong argument, my base case argument for Bitcoin somewhere up around the median on the monthly HPR, which right now is $114,500. ▶ 17:02

Levels named

• 114.5k: Target (median of the monthly historical price returns range): it is going to be very difficult not to make an argument, a strong argument, my base case argument for Bitcoin somewhere up around the median on the monthly HPR, which right now is $114,500. ▶ 17:02
• 100k: Target (minimum target if bi-monthly bullish engulfing closes): If that were to happen, I would have price targets basically at a uh you know, minimum $100,000. ▶ 15:19
• 82.8k: Resistance (close above previous bi-monthly high would make a bullish engulfing candle): that does require a closure above 82,814, that previous high. ▶ 15:05
• 79.3k: Resistance (daily stochastic momentum shows downside while closing below it): We can see that it will be showing downside momentum as long as Bitcoin's closing daily below 79,250. ▶ 12:42
• 76k: Support (bottom of the support band of upper band one on the weekly river ribbons, seen as a basing zone): as long as Bitcoin is above the bottom end, the support band of upper band one, which is 76,000 bucks in change, ▶ 10:28
• 72k: Target (lower downside objective if 76,000 breaks): we do have probably a lot lower to go, you know, somewhere around 72,000 bucks is where I'd be looking towards. ▶ 11:56

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• September CPI, undated: We have CPI coming out, we got FOMC coming out, and then of course
• September FOMC, undated: We have CPI coming out, we got FOMC coming out, and then of course
• Quad witching, mid-September, undated: we have maybe the most important one, which is the quad witching event, which is around the middle of September.