Nobody Is In This Market. That's Never Happened at a Top.

On Bitcoin

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Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Waiting on a level: If Bitcoin can finish today above 64,600 or 64 actually 5 515 on CME in the next 2 hours 27 minutes and counting ▶ 08:52
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Waiting on 65.6k (timeframe is our reading): Of course, I cannot declare victory for the bulls here until Bitcoin is at minimum back above 65 600 on the weekly closing base. ▶ 12:04
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up: And like I said, long-term Bitcoin is very likely at a major value region. ▶ 13:58 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin finishes today above the River Band midband (about 64,515 on CME), then no target given (next days, by today): If Bitcoin can finish today above 64,600 or 64 actually 5 515 on CME in the next 2 hours 27 minutes and counting, then it will indeed reclaim that and we will initiate targets up to the upper band one ▶ 08:52
• If Bitcoin reclaims the higher time frame levels on the closes coming in over the next couple weeks, then no target given (next weeks, by in the next couple weeks): And if Bitcoin does reclaim those, look, I'm looking at that as a very strong signal that's uh that we're going to try some real upside into the low 70s, maybe mid 70s ▶ 16:39
• If Daily close below last week's low at 62,500, then no target given (next weeks): the low that we saw from last week at 62,500. See any sort of daily close below there, then yes, I do think that we're getting ready for a real test down towards 6,000 bucks. ▶ 17:03

Levels named

• 65.6k: Resistance (monthly 50 EMA, top of the range; monthly and weekly closes matter): To the upside, you got 65,600. Again, that is the monthly closure and also weekly closure that really matter for Bitcoin right now ▶ 10:42
• 64.5k: Resistance (River Band midband): Again, 64,515, that's your rubber band's mid band. ▶ 10:40
• 62.2–62.5k: Support (daily or weekly close below confirms a breakdown of the range): And to the downside, 62,200 or 62,500 depending upon whether you're using a daily or a weekly in that case for actually going over a breakdown. ▶ 10:49
• 62k: Support (bottom of the roughly two-month range, held again last week): So, Bitcoin has now held 62,000 bucks yet again. It's rallied off of $62,000 yet again and is now on the verge of reclaiming ▶ 09:51
• 60.5k: Their view is wrong past this (bi-weekly stochastic bullish cross stays valid while price is above this): And it remains in that position as long as Bitcoin's above 60,450. ▶ 03:00

Their own position: No position. But, I still will pull in a profit, and now I'm effectively neutral.

Dates named

• Next week: Nvidia, core PCE, Q2 GDP and Warsh speaking, undated: Next week kind of a bigger week, in fact. You got Nvidia, core PCE, Q2 GDP, and Warsh talkin'.