Bitcoin's Two Worst Months Just Started and I'm Positioned

On Bitcoin

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• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): until that happens, downside remains more likely as Bitcoin remains below that that revenue ribbons mid-band and the next area of interest is 62,200 to the downside. ▶ 04:27 Said again while their call of 10 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 64.3k when said, 64.2k on 17 Aug 2026 (−0.2%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): short-term medium-term, I do need to maintain that bearish bias as long as Bitcoin is below the revenue ribbons indicator. ▶ 12:10 Said again while their call of 13 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 63.4k when said, 77.4k on 12 Sep 2026 (+22.0%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin breaks 62,200 on a daily closing basis, then 60.6–61.8k (next days): down to the lower end of this blue box territory, which is the next revenue ribbons target, which would be between about 60,600 and 61,800. ▶ 04:42
• If Bitcoin reclaims 64,600, flipping the short and medium term bias to the upside, then 67k (next weeks): 64,600 is still that line in the sand for Bitcoin to reclaim that would flip my bias in the short term and medium term to the upside. Still looking at a move towards 67,000 bucks. ▶ 04:17
• If Bitcoin reclaims the August 8th high at about 65,444 on a wick basis, then 67k (next weeks): reclaiming the August 8th high at about 65,444, that previous uh lower high rejection, that would certainly do it for me. And at that point, I'm looking at 67 and probably uh probably north of there, too. ▶ 13:43
• If Bitcoin closes below about 59,300 or 59,500 on a weekly, then no target given (next months): Bitcoin closed below about 59,300 or 59,500 on a higher time frame like a weekly, okay, yeah, sure. You know, I'm wrong. It's going to be you know, we are very likely to see much much much much lower. ▶ 09:45

Levels named

• 67k: Target (upside target if 64,600 is reclaimed): 64,600 is still that line in the sand for Bitcoin to reclaim that would flip my bias in the short term and medium term to the upside. Still looking at a move towards 67,000 bucks. ▶ 04:17
• 65.4k: Resistance (August 8th lower high rejection): reclaiming the August 8th high at about 65,444, that previous uh lower high rejection, that would certainly do it for me. And at that point, I'm looking at 67 and probably uh probably north of there, too. ▶ 13:43
• 64.6k: Resistance (line in the sand tied to the revenue ribbons mid-band): 64,600 is still that line in the sand for Bitcoin to reclaim that would flip my bias in the short term and medium term to the upside. ▶ 04:17
• 64.2k: Support (weekly 200-day moving average on CME; below it the level is lost): If Bitcoin is below 64,176 by end of day in 4 hours 31 minutes and 38 seconds and counting, then yes, indeed, it will lose that ▶ 00:27
• 62.2k: Support (previous low from the 1st; a close below it would be a technical breakdown): It is still that previous low that put in on 1st at 62,200 on the index. ▶ 02:21
• 60.6–61.8k: Target (next revenue ribbons target, short-term move): down to the lower end of this blue box territory, which is the next revenue ribbons target, which would be between about 60,600 and 61,800. ▶ 04:42
• 59.5–60.5k: Target (worst-case downside move if the bottom does not fall out): I could see maybe another move towards 59,500 to 60,500, something like that. ▶ 09:27
• 59.3–59.5k: Their view is wrong past this (a weekly close below would mean the speaker is wrong and much lower is likely): Bitcoin closed below about 59,300 or 59,500 on a higher time frame like a weekly, okay, yeah, sure. You know, I'm wrong. It's going to be you know, we are very likely to see much much much much lower. ▶ 09:45

Their own position: Short. And so, I shorted 10 Bitcoin at 63,850, or about there for an average price.