Bitcoin's Bear Case: 8 Signals, One Target

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks moved sideways to up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): in the short term, yeah, Bitcoin does have some downside here, perhaps looking all the way down to that $63,000 target as a minimum one that we went over in yesterday's video. ▶ 02:00 Said again while their call of 10 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 64.3k when said, 64.2k on 17 Aug 2026 (−0.2%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: my my personal bias is that we're probably not going to see any lower this month. Um probably going to be a green month this month if anything. ▶ 10:48 Said again while their call of 16 Jul 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 64.8k when said, 63k on 15 Aug 2026 (−2.6%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): my personal view is that Bitcoin still is likely already seen seen the low. It's just we did not get those confirming factors at the end of the July. ▶ 01:32 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin reclaims 64600 by tomorrow night's closure, then 70k (next weeks, by by tomorrow night's closure): reclaim that 64600 number by tomorrow night's closure, you know, again, invoking that 48 hour rule, I think you probably have already seen the low end. You're probably going to get a nice move up to 70,000 bucks ▶ 16:02
• If monthly close below 58,000, then no target given (next months): or a closure on a monthly time frame below exactly $58,000 or $58,50 if you're on the index right here. If you see one of those two things, okay, yes, there is very likely new lows ▶ 14:52
• If trade below the July low at 57750, then no target given (next months): Either a trade below the July low at 57750, that would be bad enough, or a closure on a monthly time frame below exactly $58,000 or $58,50 if you're on the index right here. ▶ 14:47
• If Bitcoin trades above 65750, then no target given (next days): if Bitcoin trades above 50 sorry 65750 um at that point I will cover because at that point a breakout in that direction is very very likely to occur ▶ 19:37

Levels named

• 65.8k: Resistance (top of the range pivot for a breakout): if Bitcoin trades above 50 sorry 65750 um at that point I will cover because at that point a breakout in that direction is very very likely to occur ▶ 19:37
• 64.6k: Resistance (reclaiming it is good; tied to the ribbon midband reversal): You're either going to see Bitcoin back above 64600 equals good or below 62800 on a daily closing base especially uh equals bad. ▶ 04:50
• 63k: Target (early August lows): perhaps looking all the way down to that $63,000 target as a minimum one that we went over in yesterday's video. ▶ 02:02
• 62.8k: Support (daily close below it is bad): You're either going to see Bitcoin back above 64600 equals good or below 62800 on a daily closing base especially uh equals bad. ▶ 04:50
• 60k: Support (weekly close below the wick low is when to worry): I wouldn't necessarily fret here until Bitcoin's closing weekly below where is this wick low right here. Uh below about 60,000 bucks. ▶ 15:13
• 57.8k: Support (July low; a trade below validates new lows): Either a trade below the July low at 57750, that would be bad enough, or a closure on a monthly time frame below exactly $58,000 or $58,50 if you're on the index right here. ▶ 14:47
• 53.7k: Target (four-month yellow 21 EMA from bearish divergence): as of right now, Bitcoin has not officially met that number, which would be 53,700 or so. ▶ 12:23
• 43.5k: Target (six-month yellow 21 EMA, most realistic bearish target): And that 21 EMA would be about 43,500 or so. That is probably our most realistic bearish target. ▶ 14:11

Their own position: Holding, no leverage. I'm in the accumulation mode anywhere in the mid to low 60s is fair game to me. Yes, I do think it's possible Bitcoin can go lower. If Bitcoin goes lower, I will continue to buy. These are not leveraged.

Dates named

• CPI release on 12 Aug 2026: Of course, tomorrow CPI, that's probably what the mark's going to be hanging around here for.
• Jackson Hole symposium on 27 Aug 2026: until we get to the end of August, about August 27th to 29th. is the Jackson's Holes uh symposium which you will hear Mr. Walsh speak