Bitcoin Has Closed Red 8 of the Last 11 Augusts — Here's What Breaks the Streak

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days went from leaning down to expecting down; months moved sideways to down.

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• Next days (next 1–7 days): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): I do think that Bitcoin does have some downside here to 61 or 60 or, you know, somewhere around 61,000 bucks, give or take 500 bucks from that number. ▶ 00:58 Said again while their call of 3 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 63.7k when said, 64.3k on 10 Aug 2026 (+0.9%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): But ultimately, in the short term, I do have to remain bearish on Bitcoin for the short term and the medium term here as long as Bitcoin is below ▶ 00:16 Said again while their call of 30 Jun 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 58.4k when said, 80.6k on 28 Oct 2026 (+38.0%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin closes back above 64,522 (daily ribbon mid-band), then no target given (next days): scenario A, Bitcoin closing back above that 64,522 number. Uh it doesn't necessarily have to happen today, by the way. ▶ 01:30
• If Bitcoin reclaims the daily ribbon mid-band, then 67k (next days): being started by Bitcoin reclaiming the daily ribbon mid-band mid-band right here, again. But, yeah, you could see a path higher and that would be, you know, that would be to 67,000 bucks ▶ 07:22
• If August closes as a negative month, then 57k (next weeks, by August): negative month, uh I I fear that Mr. Peckham is going to get really mad if I talk about this. Oh, dear lord. Uh down to 57,000 bucks if that were to happen. ▶ 04:39
• If Bitcoin's macro low is in, then 69–72k (next weeks, by August): if the if the Bitcoin macro low is in, I do actually expect up in August and I do expect at least 69 and probably more like 71, 72 region. ▶ 05:24

Levels named

• 67k: Target (minimum corrective target to the green moving average after the 5/21 EMA cross): that would be to 67,000 bucks, maybe even a little bit more. Again, that is a minimum target, after all. ▶ 07:28
• 64.6k: Resistance (daily close above the Rev and Ribbons mid-band is needed to turn short-term bullish): which would require a daily closure on CME very specifically above 64,561, I cannot even be short-term bullish and I do have to be looking for further downside. ▶ 00:37
• 61.8k: Support (previous trending higher low): before any sort of like major pullback below the previous trending higher low, which in this case was about 61,800. ▶ 07:06
• 61.5k: Target (breakdown to the previous range low): You get your actual breakdown to the previous range low. That that would be the $61,500 target. ▶ 08:11
• 59k: Support (if the macro low is in, price should not go below this): if Bitcoin's got the macro low in, I really don't even expect it to go back down really even below like 59,000 bucks at this point. ▶ 04:54
• 57k: Target (median negative August return applied to the August open): negative month, uh I I fear that Mr. Peckham is going to get really mad if I talk about this. Oh, dear lord. Uh down to 57,000 bucks if that were to happen. ▶ 04:39

Their own position: Short. as far as my position goes, I'm still short 20 66 and 1/2 thousand dollar calls for Bitcoins.