Bitcoin Just Got Rejected at the 200 SMA. The Perma Bears Just Turned Bullish.

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days flipped up to down; weeks flipped down to up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): but do expect more downside in the short term as Bitcoin, you know, fights off some of these lower term time frame uh bearish divergences ▶ 04:40 The call was wrong: 79.9k when said, 81.3k on 14 May 2026 (+1.8%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Expects up (timeframe is our reading): So ultimately um you know I still think the rally gets somewhere around there before we get like a bigger deeper pullback. ▶ 13:47 Said again while their call of 1 May 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 78.4k when said, 73.7k on 31 May 2026 (−6.1%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I kind of am leaning towards Bitcoin or at least very much open to the possibility of Bitcoin putting in a macro low at the low 60s ▶ 09:44 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin closes below the 78,000 midband / 5 EMA, then no target given (next days): Now, below there, if Bitcoin starts to close below there, I would absolutely entertain the possibility and even probability that Bitcoin does come down, you know, maybe another 10% to low 70s or upper 60s. ▶ 02:33
• If Bitcoin closes back above 81,000 today, then no target given (next days, by today): Now I mean if Bitcoin I guess closed back above 81,000 bucks today. Okay. I would be on that side but it's looking less and less likely to me. ▶ 02:56

Levels named

• 86–87k: Target (Upper-end target at a previous breakdown level from January): And then on the upper end, I'd say somewhere around like 86, maybe as much as 87. That is a previous breakdown over here actually from January of this year. ▶ 13:39
• 84.8k: Target (Green 55 EMA is the minimum target after the 5 EMA crossed above the 21 EMA on the 5-day): obviously that 55 EMA is all the way at 84800 or and change. So um you know I am still looking for Bitcoin to at some point get up there ▶ 08:52
• 81k: Their view is wrong past this (A close back above it would flip the speaker to the bullish side): Now I mean if Bitcoin I guess closed back above 81,000 bucks today. Okay. I would be on that side but it's looking less and less likely to me. ▶ 02:56
• 79.3k: Support (Dotted line on chart; speaker doubts it holds): very slight amount of you know on these dotted lines right here at 79 350. But personally I don't I doubt that that's going to hold. ▶ 02:50
• 79.2k: Support (Cluster of long liquidations; losing it opens the move lower): all around 79200. So if you do see Bitcoin below there, that opens up the gateway for that move down to 7,8200, which is actually the 7-day long liquidation level right here. ▶ 07:26

Their own position: No position. personally, I will be buying, you know, high to mid60s if, you know, if we do see those numbers again.

Dates named

• CME 3-week hidden bullish divergence confirmation on 8 May 2026: CME is just one day away from confirming hidden bullish evidence on the 3-week time frame.