Bitcoin: The UGLIEST Trap Is Here

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months moved sideways to up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Expects up: Yeah, I do think Bitcoin's going to bounce probably around 115 if I had to guess. ▶ 17:04 Said again while their call of 14 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 111.3k when said, 108.6k on 21 Oct 2025 (−2.5%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): it is looking more and more likely that October will be a negative closing month or at least there is good reason to believe that this is uh very much possible right now ▶ 10:35 Said again while their call of 14 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 111.3k when said, 102.9k on 13 Nov 2025 (−7.5%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): the more that Bitcoin goes sideways, the more it sets in a base, the more that that essentially acts as a launching pad for perhaps another leg to the upside, but later on ▶ 05:42 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 124.2k when said, 78.1k on 3 Feb 2026 (−37.1%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin closes the 5-day period above 108,200 with volatility expanding above the 15th percentile, then no target given (next weeks): Bitcoin would just need to close above 108, 200. And assuming that volatility is still expanding at that point, above 15 percentile, that would actually make me quite bullish ▶ 13:31
• If the bounce gets rejected, then no target given (next weeks): And if you do see a rejection, it comes down harsh, you know, those setups will play it to the downside and we're probably looking, you know, into the mid to low 90s uh on a break. ▶ 21:58
• If Bitcoin fails to hold above 115k, especially close to the end of the month, then no target given (next weeks, by end of this month): But if it fails, you know, especially close to the end of this month, that will be a setup for lower first before anything else. ▶ 21:22
• If Bitcoin is still below about 110k on the next period or two, so the 8-day moving average cross happens, then no target given (next weeks): at some point if Bitcoin is still below about $110,000, it is extremely likely to happen that we will get this cross maybe on the next period or two. ▶ 18:30

Levels named

• 118–119k: Target (possible overshoot of the minimum bounce target): perhaps it could move up all the way to, you know, 118 and change or 119 and change ▶ 05:26
• 115k: Target (confluence of the 50% retracement and the daily HPDR median): Yeah, I do think Bitcoin's going to bounce probably around 115 if I had to guess. ▶ 17:04
• 115k: Support (must hold by month end to keep bullish hopes open): So, I do think we got a rally around that 115 number. Bitcoin really needs to remain above it by the end of this month to keep open the more immediate bullish hopeium in my opinion. ▶ 20:48
• 112.7k: Target (0.382 retracement of the high-to-low move): we can see that the 382 level is coming in around 112700. So that's going to be an area of interest on this bounce ▶ 04:52
• 105k: Support (prior low before the move; the HPDR setup expects no new closes below it): and in this case the prior low before was about 105. ▶ 03:37
• 100k: Target (50% retracement area of interest on a downside move): 50% retracement level is about 100,000 bucks and change. 618 is about 94,000 bucks. ▶ 19:32
• 96k: Target (green 55 EMA is the minimum correction target of the moving average cross setup): that green moving average is all the way down at 96,000 bucks, which would be a big correction to be fair. ▶ 19:10
• 94k: Target (0.618 retracement area of interest on a downside move): 50% retracement level is about 100,000 bucks and change. 618 is about 94,000 bucks. ▶ 19:32

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• New moon, traditionally a bearish period on 22 Oct 2025: Now after I think it is Wednesday, yeah on Wednesday we will get the new moon which if you are familiar with uh astrology