Bitcoin: The UGLIEST Trap Is Coming

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks moved sideways to up; months moved sideways to down.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Expects up (timeframe is our reading): we're very likely to see a bounce somewhere to fulfill a test of that median. ▶ 03:15 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 124.2k when said, 102.1k on 5 Nov 2025 (−17.8%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): the likelihood of this thing coming down probably even a little bit below 100,000 bucks is very very likely. ▶ 11:18 The call was right: 111.4k when said, 67.2k on 13 Feb 2026 (−39.7%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): and all the all the long-term corrections that we've seen throughout this market cycle have led towards long-term continuation to the upside. ▶ 11:51 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin bounces first to the 50% or 618 retracement, then rejects (bull trap), then comes back down to the green 55 EMA, then no target given (next months, their main case): if it bounces first up here to that, you know, 50% level or 618 level, and then rejects, and then we know that Bitcoin is very likely going ▶ 06:24
• If Bitcoin first tests the 55 EMA to the downside, fulfills the 4-day setup, then bounces, then no target given (next months): if Bitcoin first tests the 55 down here, fulfills that condition and then bounces, then it's actually possible that yes, we might see this thing ▶ 08:29

Levels named

• 118–120k: Target (50% to 618 retracement, near the falling daily HPDR median): the 618 is coming in around about one, actually 120, a little bit closer to 120. The 50% retracement level is about 118. So, I'd imagine somewhere within this vicinity ▶ 04:39
• 117.8k: Resistance (weekly bullish control is lost while price stays below this level): On the weekly time frame, as long as you're below 117 800, by the way. ▶ 09:36
• 108.8k: Support (average Thursday percent loss boundary from price action statistics): at around 108 830-ish region. So, if you do see a wick down around there, probably would be looking for a bit of a bounce on the first pass. ▶ 00:45
• 105–107k: Support, expected to hold (last Friday's low, unlikely to be broken as volatility contracts): Friday's low or last Friday's low, I should say, which was about 105 or 107, depending upon your exchange. ▶ 02:53
• 100k: Target (higher time frame momentum oscillators and bearish divergences point lower): the likelihood of this thing coming down probably even a little bit below 100,000 bucks is very very likely. ▶ 11:18

Their own position: Not said.