Bitcoin Volatility Hasn't Been This Low Since September. A Big Move Is Loading.

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days flipped up to down; weeks moved up to sideways; months moved waiting to up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down: I do think Bitcoin probably breaks the midband today, but ultimately I don't think Bitcoin's going to be in like a full-on breakdown here. ▶ 12:16 The call was a draw: 64.3k when said, 64.2k on 17 Aug 2026 (−0.2%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Sideways: I'm still just positioned for Bitcoin to stay between 62 versus about 66. Um, as long as Bitcoin's between these two numbers, I'm happy for the next couple weeks. ▶ 16:29 The call was wrong: 64.3k when said, 78.6k on 9 Sep 2026 (+22.2%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I still do have an overall upside bias for the resolution of this current formation. I think it just takes some time. ▶ 15:39 Said again while their call of 10 Jul 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 7 Nov 2026, against 64k when said.

If this, then that

• If July CPI comes in hot, above about 3.2%, raising the odds of September rate hikes, then 62.2–62.5k (next days): maybe all the way down to that previous low that we saw from uh what was it earlier this month. Um at about 62200, I think it was 62500 somewhere around there would make a lot of sense. ▶ 18:13
• If Bitcoin starts to close below the weekly 200 simple average at end of week, then 62.2–62.5k (next weeks): get ready for another test to the downside of the range. You know, all the way down to 62200, 62,500, whatever that might be. ▶ 21:26
• If Bitcoin closes below the Rev and Ribbons midband, then 63k (next days): if Bitcoin closed above the re or closes below the Revan Rubin's midband at 64,600, uh, very likely at least moved back down to about $63,000 ▶ 23:54

Levels named

• 66k: Resistance (top of the five-week range on CME): Ultimately, Bitcoin, you know, tightening the range between about 66,000 bucks to the upside on CME versus $63,000 to the downside. ▶ 12:39
• 64.6k: Support (Rev and Ribbons midband seen as the line in the sand): if Bitcoin closed above the re or closes below the Revan Rubin's midband at 64,600, uh, very likely at least moved back down to about $63,000 ▶ 23:54
• 63k: Support (early August low area where a bounce is expected): If Bitcoin does lose that, I do look for 63,000 uhish to be hit. Maybe it's slightly lower than that, maybe slightly higher than that ▶ 15:22
• 62.5k: Support (low side of the range and bi-weekly pivot; wants to see Bitcoin hold above): Um that one's pivoted at 62500. So basically the low side of this range. You know, we really do want to see Bitcoin hold above there. ▶ 23:27
• 60.6k: Support (10-day cast momentum stays upside above this level): That one remains with upside pressure as long as Bitcoin's above 60,650 or so. ▶ 22:34

Their own position: Short. So, if you recall previously, I was short 20 puts versus 20 calls at the 62,000 versus $66,000 strikes.

On Ethereum

Changed since their last video: days flipped up to down.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): I do think you got a bit of a downswing here obviously, but let's see how far down this thing come. ▶ 45:32 The call was wrong: 1.88k when said, 1.91k on 17 Aug 2026 (+1.9%).

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• July CPI release on 11 Aug 2026: As far as Tuesday goes, that's the big event for this week. July CPI coming out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.