🚨 Bitcoin's Distribution Signal Just Hit 3X — Hours Before Powell's Final Fed

On Bitcoin

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Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): nothing like that to think that Bitcoin's got some downside right here. ▶ 20:55 The call was wrong: 75.9k when said, 81.7k on 6 May 2026 (+7.6%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): you know I'd probably be looking for like another 10% move to the downside maybe as much as 15%. ▶ 28:33 Said again while their call of 28 Apr 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 76.1k when said, 72.9k on 28 May 2026 (−4.1%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Sideways: I just don't expect all that much to happen outside of this mega range that it's been constructing over the past few months ▶ 13:52 Said again while their call of 11 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 66.5k when said, 62.7k on 11 Jun 2026 (−5.7%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin closes below 75300 on a daily basis, then 70k (next weeks, by during most of May): be 75300 for Bitcoin. uh if Bitcoin does close below there, I do expect Bitcoin to to descend um you know over the probably during most of May sub 70,000 bucks ▶ 1:43:36
• If Bitcoin reclaims the 79,500 high, then no target given (next weeks): if Bitcoin did reclaim the 79 uh $500 high I would be instantly bullish for Bitcoin going into the mid80s ▶ 1:43:57
• If Bitcoin closes the month above 76,000 (March's high), then 80k (next weeks, by May): above 76,000 bucks, which is uh March's high, yeah, you're not going to have that sort of short-term bull opium. If Bitcoin does close above there, then there is some opium for May to try into the $80,000 territory. ▶ 29:08

Levels named

• 80k: Resistance (upper end of the multi-month range): if Bitcoin can effectively hold this range between about 80,000 on the upper end between there and 60,000 bucks on the lower end. ▶ 14:21
• 79.5k: Their view is wrong past this (high from earlier this week; above it the bearish direction is invalidated): 79,500. As long as you're below there, direction is down. ▶ 27:27
• 76k: Resistance (March's high; monthly close above it needed for short-term bullishness): above 76,000 bucks, which is uh March's high, yeah, you're not going to have that sort of short-term bull opium. If Bitcoin does close above there, then there is some opium for May to try into the $80,000 territory. ▶ 29:08
• 75.3k: Support (Revan Ribbons indicator short-term target; a daily close below validates further downside): 75300 for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaks below there on a daily closing basis, uh the bottom side targets are going to extend further down. ▶ 25:30
• 74.6k: Target (12-hour green 55 EMA as minimum target for the corrective move): the green 55 EMA becomes a legitimate minimum target for this move, which is 74,640 as of current. ▶ 23:52
• 73.4k: Target (next stop on the way down): stops along the way I guess 73 400 would be next and then you got about 71500 below that. ▶ 1:43:47
• 71.5k: Target (stop below 73,400 on the way down): stops along the way I guess 73 400 would be next and then you got about 71500 below that. ▶ 1:43:47
• 60k: Support (lower end of the multi-month range): if Bitcoin can effectively hold this range between about 80,000 on the upper end between there and 60,000 bucks on the lower end. ▶ 14:21

Their own position: Short. I shorted the 81 versus $84,000 call uh call spread here.

Dates named

• FOMC decision later today on 29 Apr 2026: there might be a big surprise with FOMC coming up later today.
• May 29 options expiry on Bitcoin call spread on 29 May 2026: lot of premium on those uh you know on those May 29th calls by the way