"Bitcoin Is In A Bear Market & This Is Why It Feels Different" | Ben Cowen

On Bitcoin

Guest Ben Cowen · not counted as The Wolf Of All Streets' view.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: normally after a three-month downturn like we just had, we typically then have sort of a counter trend rally that lasts like, you know, a month or two. ▶ 43:19
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Expects down: I just think that the current downturn that we're in is going to last, you know, for at least the first half of 2026. ▶ 22:21
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up: there's a good chance the low will be in the fourth quarter. ▶ 39:53

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin goes back to 110K and prints weekly closes there, then no target given (next months): Like if Bitcoin goes back to like 110K and starts printing weekly closes there, like absolutely I'd have to say ▶ 37:46
• If it's October and Bitcoin is around 60k, then no target given (this cycle, by October): if it especially like if it's October and Bitcoin say like 60k like I don't think I could look at that and be like oh no it has to go lower. ▶ 33:31

Levels named

• 100–101k: Resistance (50-week moving average; past midterm-year bear markets saw a counter-trend rally to it): And right now that's around 101K. So, you know, like I'm not against Bitcoin going back up to 100K. ▶ 27:43
• 100k: Resistance (200-day moving average falling toward the 50-week moving average): that that 200 day moving average by the end of February is probably going to be close to 100K ▶ 42:48
• 58k: Target (200-week moving average, which Bitcoin normally checks in with every few years): the 200 week, yeah, it's approaching 58K. Um so I mean I think there's a good chance Bitcoin will tag the 200E moving average within the next year or so. ▶ 32:47

Their own position: Holding. I basically exited some of the Bitcoin positions that I had in Q4 and I still own like 30% of my Bitcoin stack.

Dates named

• Fed rate-cut expectations fall; Fed may hold until Powell leaves as chair, undated: there's still a 60% chance the Fed holds rates constant until POW is no longer chair of the Federal Reserve.