Crypto Looks Safe… Until This Happens!

On Bitcoin

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• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): My base case is that we go and touch back on that line and retest that line. That would be my base case. ▶ 06:27
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): it's a correction and then it's basically the big move back up over here, right? That's what the charts are telling me. ▶ 10:16

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin eventually breaks the wall of worry resistance, then no target given (next months): So when eventually we do break we are going to have a big move up but I do suspect that we are going to go down first. ▶ 05:22
• If CPI prints higher than the 3.6% consensus tomorrow, then no target given (next days, by tomorrow): If we get higher than 3.4% uh 3.6% tomorrow, that could dampen the mood a little bit. Markets may correct a little bit ▶ 11:56

Levels named

• 84–86k: Resistance (cohorts of underwater buyers and institutions selling create a wall of worry): biggest Bitcoin's biggest wall of worry sits just above where we are at which is 84 to 86,000. ▶ 05:01
• 76.5k: Target (roughly a 12-13% pullback from the 87k high, near the 50-week average): My first level would be this level over here. I would say that 676,000 76,500 good level, right? ▶ 05:34
• 72k: Target (expects a 15-16% correction from the 87k high): I'd probably expect about a 15 to 16% correction. I'd expect it around 72. ▶ 06:04

Their own position: No position. And so, I've restrained myself from buying anything, right?

Dates named

• US CPI inflation release on 14 Oct 2026: CPI data coming out, consensus forecast 3.6%, the previous one was 3.4%.
• October 16 options expiry with put-heavy open interest on 16 Oct 2026: October 16th has 1.2 billion open interest with a put call ratio of 44.
• Next FOMC meeting, possible rate hike, undated: there's an 80.6% chance of no interest rate hike at the next FOMC, which happens a little bit before the midterms.