Bitcoin Extreme Uncertainty

On Bitcoin

No change since their last video.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Waiting on 83k: what I would argue is that if Bitcoin were to give up 83K on the weekly time frame after a week or two close, then a lot of people will then completely question this entire breakout. ▶ 24:44

If this, then that

• If if the 50-day moving average holds, then no target given (next weeks, by before the end of the month): So, if this holds, if the 50-day holds, we should be at new high, new local new local highs before the end of the month. ▶ 1:01:29
• If if the 50-day moving average doesn't hold, then no target given (next weeks): And if it doesn't hold, then we should be heading back down to the bottom of the range really, really soon. ▶ 1:01:39
• If if Bitcoin gives up 83K on the weekly time frame, it unwinds almost immediately, then no target given (next weeks): what I would argue is that if Bitcoin were to give up 83K on the weekly time frame after a week or two close, then a lot of people will then completely question this entire breakout. ▶ 24:44

Levels named

• 87k: Resistance (a new local high above the prior breakout high would confirm the bull case): We're either going to go up and and print a new local high above 87K really really soon or it's going to be a fake breakout ▶ 02:49
• 83k: Support (a weekly close below it would make people question the breakout): what I would argue is that if Bitcoin were to give up 83K on the weekly time frame after a week or two close, then a lot of people will then completely question this entire breakout. ▶ 24:44
• 60k: Support (a drop to 60K and bounce could hurt the market for years): because imagine Bitcoin comes back down to 60K and then bounces back up, right? ▶ 35:58
• 53k: Target (realized price, where he expected a drop before a rally): drop, go below the realized price, right? Go below the realized price, which is around like 53K or so, and then have a rally after that. ▶ 48:48

Their own position: Bought, no leverage. and I've said it in practically every video since that my strategy for Bitcoin is to just simply DCA throughout the second half of the midterm year, right?

Dates named

• October Fed rate hike, undated: If you look at rate hike expectations, the odds of a rate hike now in October are 85%.
• US midterms, undated: So, if the 10-year yield is destined to go down after the midterms, then perhaps Bitcoin plays out just like it always has.