Bitcoin Live: The Week Into the Fed.

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days went from expecting up to leaning up; cycle went from expecting up to leaning up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up: I don't I don't expect like any like crazy upside, particularly this week. I just expect, you know, some sideways and up. Maybe hopefully back up to 84,000 bucks. ▶ 1:04:34 Said again while their call of 15 Oct 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 82.4k when said, 81.7k on 22 Oct 2026 (−0.9%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: As long as Bitcoin's above there, I am still looking at this as much higher probability to trade up and to the right into middle of November. ▶ 1:54:18 The call was open until 18 Nov 2026, against 81.9k when said.
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): Ultimately, it's going to be hard for me to like get super bearish on Bitcoin. Uh, you know, for the higher term time frames because realistically, you do have a flipping of the trend here. ▶ 05:01 Said again while their call of 9 Oct 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 9 Oct 2027, against 83.2k when said.

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin loses last week's low (79,700) on a daily close, then no target given (next days): If you do lose that number, then yes, I do think you're going to come down in a decent way to 765 to 77,000 bucks. ▶ 1:46:43
• If Bitcoin takes out the $75,000 low, then 67–70k (next weeks): And then if Bitcoin takes out that $75,000 uh that's that $75,000 low, then I look for another major step down. You know, at that point, I could look at, you know, anywhere between 67 to 70,000 bucks. ▶ 20:12
• If Bitcoin reclaims last week's high at 84,200 (short-term upside pivot, sideways and up confirmed), then no target given (next days): we could also have a short-term upside pivot as well, if Bitcoin could Bitcoin could reclaim 84,200 basically. ▶ 1:04:49
• If Bitcoin loses the 200 moving average on the two-day time frame, then 76.5k (next days): And I'd be looking for a much more sizable pullback for Bitcoin at the very least coming down to like 76,500ish region, probably bounce there. ▶ 15:16

Levels named

• 93–95k: Target (median 14.5% one-month return after the 10-day cascade momentum signal): Uh but that put Bitcoin at around, you know, 93 94 95,000. ▶ 11:30
• 90k: Target (undershoot case of the stacked-signal stats): Again, even if it undersshoots, you know, probably close 90,000 bucks, which I think is still a legitimate target actually before the end of this month, ▶ 11:34
• 85.3k: Target (median ~5% return in 10 days after the 10-day reconnect with the 5 EMA): 5% up from that reconnect would put us where or sorry from the closure of it would put us where that put us back around about 85,250 ▶ 08:51
• 84.2k: Resistance (last week's high; reclaiming it would be an upside pivot): Bitcoin could Bitcoin could reclaim 84,200 basically. Was this last week's high? I think it actually was last week's high. ▶ 1:04:52
• 79.7k: Support (last week's low must hold on daily closes for the bullish case): Daily time frame, if Bitcoin is going to be bullish, we expect it absolutely to hold last week's low, which is 76700. So, as sorry, 79700. ▶ 1:46:29
• 67.5k: Support (weekly 200 simple would still be a higher low): you could theoretically come all the way down to the 200 simple on the on the uh on the weekly time frame here, which is about 67,500, ▶ 05:10

Their own position: Bought. Let's bet 25 big ones at this exact moment and see what the hell happens.

On Ethereum

No change since their last video.

No view on any horizon.

If this, then that

• If Ethereum closes below 2330 on the two-day time frame, then 2k (next weeks): I would call it a breakdown again it's hard for me to get like super bearish here I I could easily look for a big pull back down to like $2,000, maybe slightly below there. ▶ 15:59
• If the last low holds on Ethereum, then 2.5–2.55k (next weeks): Look, 4 hour time frame, shortterm probably targets back to like 2500. Uh if the low does hold, something like that between 25 to 2550. ▶ 1:14:51
• If the low holds and Ethereum is bullish, then 3k (next months): if the low holds and it's bullish, I think you're going past 3,000 bucks or longer. ▶ 1:14:24

Levels named

• 2.33k: Support (line in the sand; a two-day close below is a breakdown): this one if we're going to look at the same sort of line in the sand about 2330 is where I'd be looking at similar things ▶ 15:46

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• FOMC decision on 28 Oct 2026: the FOMC decision will happen about I don't know like what four or five days before the end of this month I think it is quite literally next Wednesday so that would be the 28th