Bitcoin: 83% Chance of Upside (Here Is Why)

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days moved up to sideways; weeks went from leaning up to expecting up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Sideways: this week might be a boring week to to begin with because of course uh the big event is actually next week and I s and I typically do expect things to kind of like wait around ▶ 00:24 The call was right: 81.9k when said, 80.2k on 27 Oct 2026 (−2.2%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Expects up: So realistically, the majority of that move you do expect within about 3 weeks from that. ▶ 09:45 Said again while their call of 19 Oct 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 18 Nov 2026, against 81.9k when said.
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): Ultimately, it's going to be hard for me to like get super bearish on Bitcoin. Uh, you know, for the higher term time frames because realistically, you do have a flipping of the trend here. ▶ 01:38 Said again while their call of 9 Oct 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 9 Oct 2027, against 83.2k when said.

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin trades below last week's low, then no target given (next weeks): If Bitcoin really starts to come down, like I said, below last week's low, I do look for that move to 765 to 77,000 bucks. ▶ 15:27
• If Bitcoin takes out the $75,000 low, then 67–70k (next weeks): if Bitcoin takes out that $75,000 uh that's that $75,000 low, then I look for another major step down. You know, at that point, I could look at, you know, anywhere between 67 to 70,000 bucks. ▶ 15:32

Levels named

• 93–95k: Target (median return of the 1-month stat after the stochastic enters the extreme zone): that would put Bitcoin at around, you know, 93 94 95,000 US. ▶ 07:24
• 90k: Target (undershoot case of the historical stats): Again, even if it undersshoots, you know, probably close to 90,000 bucks, which I think is still a legitimate target actually before the end of this month ▶ 07:25
• 85.3k: Target (median 5% bounce after the 10-day reconnect with the 5 EMA): from the closure of it would put us where that would put us back around about 85,250. Again, that's within 10 days. ▶ 04:46
• 79.7k: Support (last week's low; losing it on a daily close would start a deeper pullback): if Bitcoin were to lose that 79,700 low from last week on a minimum of daily closing basis ▶ 12:29
• 75k: Support (prior low; losing it opens a step down to 67-70k): if Bitcoin takes out that $75,000 uh that's that $75,000 low, then I look for another major step down. You know, at that point, I could look at, you know, anywhere between 67 to 70,000 bucks. ▶ 15:32
• 67.5k: Support (weekly 200 simple moving average, would still be a higher low): you could theoretically come all the way down to the 200 simple on the on the uh on the weekly time frame here, which is about 67,500 ▶ 01:47

Their own position: Not said.

On Ethereum

No change since their last video.

No view on any horizon.

If this, then that

• If Ethereum closes below 2330 on the two-day time frame, then 2k (next weeks): If Ethereum closed below there I would call it a breakdown. Again, I it's hard for me to get like super bearish here, but I I could easily look for a big pull back down to like $2,000, maybe slightly below there. ▶ 11:50

Levels named

• 2.33k: Their view is wrong past this (line in the sand on a two-day close): about 2330 is where I'd be looking at similar things what we uh did say before. This would be pertaining to a two-day time frame closure. ▶ 11:43

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• FOMC decision on 28 Oct 2026: the FOMC decision will happen about I don't know like what four or five days before the end of this month. I think it is quite literally next Wednesday.