Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks flipped down to up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): Ultimately, I do think Bitcoin will likely go below 60k. Uh it might happen while we are on the stream. ▶ 02:26 Said again while their call of 1 Jun 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.8k when said, 63.1k on 8 Jun 2026 (−14.4%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: Look for a July counter-trend rally and then look for the final drop into Q4. ▶ 1:40:51 The call was right: 60.4k when said, 62.7k on 5 Jul 2026 (+3.8%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: My base case as of June 5th as of June 5th is that the low will occur in Q4. ▶ 20:18 Said again while their call of 18 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): and then go into your your Q4 low, and then from here, you can start like your next your next bull market. ▶ 1:12:58 Said again while their call of 1 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 1 Feb 2027, against 78.9k when said.

If this, then that

• If If we hold 60k like we did in 2018, then no target given (next months): If we hold 60k like we did in 2018, then unfortunately, I would have to I would have to remind you guys for the next 3 months that we'll likely find a low later in the year ▶ 21:49
• If If the next low is 40K, then no target given (this cycle): If the next low is 40K, then would I wait until October to flip bullish? Absolutely not. ▶ 20:52
• If If we go to 50k and then bounce, then no target given (next months): If we go to 50k and then bounce, you probably just DCA Bitcoin and and and try to get somewhere near the low. ▶ 22:48

Levels named

• 78k: Resistance (200-day moving average marked the top of the 2018 counter-trend rally): By the way, the 200-day moving average right now is at 78k, but it is dropping pretty quickly. ▶ 1:44:17
• 60.1k: Support (February low being swept): you can see that the low in February was at around 60,132. ▶ 03:55
• 30–40k: Support (worst-case floor for the year): I think the floor for the year would be the 30 to 40K range. ▶ 05:11

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Fed meeting and Bank of Japan meeting on 17 Jun 2026: Interestingly, the next Fed meeting is on June 17th and there's also a Bank of Japan meeting that same day
• Clarity Act chatter, undated: That's one of the reasons why I think you'll see a countertrend rally in July is because people are like talking about the Clarity Act again.