Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

On Bitcoin

No change since their last video.

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• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down: I do not think the February low is necessarily safe from being taken out. I do not. I I think it is possible that we could take out that low in the month of June. ▶ 34:06 Said again while their call of 19 May 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 77k when said, 64.5k on 18 Jun 2026 (−16.2%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: And then a correction in the stock market will cause Bitcoin to form its market cycle bottom in Q4. ▶ 23:13 Said again while their call of 18 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin crashes to 40K this month, then no target given (next weeks, by this month): If Bitcoin were to crash to 40K this month, then the odds of the low being in June go up astronomically. ▶ 25:54
• If capitulation below 60k would make him flip and say the bear market doesn't have to last until October, then no target given (this cycle): and for me to actually flip and say, you know what, the bear market doesn't have to last until October, I would need to see a a capitulation, you know, below 60k. ▶ 17:33
• If Bitcoin goes below the realized price, giving more confidence the low is in, then no target given (this cycle): So, right now, the realized price is around 53.8K. So, if Bitcoin were to go below the realized price, that would give you some more confidence that the low is in. ▶ 58:42

Levels named

• 61.8k: Support (200-week moving average, the 'date with destiny'): So, the 200-week moving average is around 61.8k and we're currently at around 62.8k. ▶ 01:31
• 60k: Support (if it plays out like 2018, the low is around 60): If it's if it plays out like 2018, you should find a low around 60, plus or minus. ▶ 42:57
• 58k: Target (asymmetric quantile regression level equal to the FTX crash dislocation, also sweeps the February low): if Bitcoin were to go to around 58k that would correspond to the to the relative levels it was at during the FTX crash around 58k. ▶ 55:56
• 53.8k: Support (realized price; prior bear markets went below it): So, right now, the realized price is around 53.8K. ▶ 58:42
• 52k: Target (quantile regression level comparable to the March 2020 crash dislocation): So if Bitcoin were to go to 52k then comparing to where it went in 2020 that would be the best comparison in terms of like assuming that the floor of the structural support is rising. ▶ 56:33

Their own position: Not said.