Everyone Wants a Bitcoin Pullback. History Says They Don't Get One [Kalshi Live Trading]

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days flipped down to up; weeks went from leaning down to expecting down.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): in the short term here, I am really I I would really not be surprised to see Bitcoin continue to the upside from here. ▶ 2:21:04 The call was a draw: 79.1k when said, 78.6k on 31 Aug 2026 (−0.7%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Expects down: between this week and two weeks from now, extremely likely we do see that uh that pullback ▶ 2:20:03 Said again while their call of 13 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 63.4k when said, 77.4k on 12 Sep 2026 (+22.0%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I do think Bitcoin is more likely to get up to, you know, mid80s than it has come back down to 70,000 bucks at this point. ▶ 2:17:25 Said again while their call of 10 Jul 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 7 Nov 2026, against 64k when said.
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I think that the low for Bitcoin is in. ▶ 1:29:02 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin loses 70,000, which would make the October 10th bottom idea matter, then no target given (this cycle): if Bitcoin were to lose 70,000 bucks, that would be the first major thing for me to say, hey, maybe that October 10th thing actually does matter. ▶ 20:09

Levels named

• 85–86k: Target (median first leg after reclaiming the daily 200 simple): I think Bitcoin continues to the upside first, maybe as far as 85 to 86,000 bucks, which would be incredibly incredibly powerful. ▶ 17:00
• 81.2k: Resistance (weekly Raven ribbon midline dots act as short-term resistance): these red dots right here do typically act as short-term resistances and that is at 81200. ▶ 2:23:37
• 73–76k: Support (pullback pocket to reconnect with major moving averages): What I'm personally looking at is probably like 76 or so, but anywhere in that pocket between 73 to 76, I think it's fair game. ▶ 26:56
• 72k: Support (weekly red 5 EMA reconnect): Right now, that red 5 EMA on the weekly time frame is where 72,000 bucks. ▶ 18:59
• 72k: Support (worst case downside this week): I would say worst case scenario to the downside would be about 72,000 bucks. ▶ 26:45
• 70k: Their view is wrong past this (line in the sand for the rally): 70,000 bucks is a beautiful line in the sand. As long as Bitcoin's above there, I have no real questions about this rally ▶ 19:49

Their own position: Bought, no leverage; would buy at 78.9k. let's actually bid a little bit lower. Let's do 78,900. We'll buy 100 right there.

On Ethereum

No change since their last video.

Views

• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I think this thing's probably loading a move up towards 3,000. ▶ 1:54:38 Said again while their call of 21 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was open until 19 Dec 2026, against 2.39k when said.

Levels named

• 3k: Target (Ethereum chart in a better position): I think this thing's probably loading a move up towards 3,000. ▶ 1:54:38

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• Bessent speech at 2pm Eastern on 24 Aug 2026: I expect markets will move here and I think a lot of people are looking or looking for that speech to be something regarding
• September quad witching, undated: the back two weeks of September after the major quad witching event in which in which case you see all these massive expirations