Bitcoin's Corrective Cross Is Back: How Long the Dip Takes, How Deep

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days moved sideways to down; weeks went from expecting up to leaning up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Expects down: I'm trying to say very, very short term Bitcoin corrective or very likely to be more corrective here. ▶ 07:26 Said again while their call of 7 Sep 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 78.8k when said, 78.6k on 14 Sep 2026 (−0.3%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): But yes, after about the midpoint of September, which guess what, is next fucking week, then that's when I expect the real mark to begin. ▶ 07:41 Said again while their call of 19 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 68.6k when said, 80.7k on 18 Sep 2026 (+17.8%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): But long term, still do have an optimistic view of this market more or less. ▶ 05:58 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin closes below 77,300, losing the CME mid-band, then no target given (next days): it will today if Bitcoin close below 77,300, if that does happen. I think that kind of green lights the move a little bit further south to fulfill those corrective targets officially ▶ 15:04
• If the Fed maintains rates, then no target given (next days): what does that mean if we do see the Fed maintain rates? Well, you're gonna see price fucking go up. ▶ 11:37

Levels named

• 81.5k: Target (median bounce of about 7.7% ten days after the 21 EMA touch, at the range highs): what is your median bounce plus seven spot 7%, which actually puts Bitcoin back at around 81,500, effectively the range highs. ▶ 07:03
• 79.8k: Resistance (yesterday's high; below it he cannot be bullish short term): Bitcoin, as long as it's below $79,800, basically yesterday's high as we said in yesterday's video, I can't really be bullish in the short term. ▶ 05:50
• 78.5k: Target (bounce after the test typically retests the yellow 21 EMA): One is going to be at least a test of the Yellow 21 EMA, which in this case, that would put Bitcoin somewhere back around about $78,550. ▶ 05:35
• 76.5k: Support (anything below is seen as an opportunity for a scout bounce): look, I look at anything below 76,500 as very likely an opportunity for at least a scout bounce. ▶ 03:30
• 76.2k: Support (last major higher low on a daily closing basis): Remember, though, the last major higher low that Bitcoin did have was $76,200, and that is on a daily closing basis, realistically. ▶ 09:14
• 75.7k: Target (minimum test down to the green 55 EMA after the 12-hour corrective cross): So generally speaking, I look for a minimum test down to the green 55 EMA, which as of right now, actually would be on a new low down to about 75,700. ▶ 00:41
• 75k: Support (anything above it is generally good for the consolidation): And right here, still looking at Bitcoin kind of consoling. Anything above $75,000 is generally good. ▶ 16:35
• 73k: Target (median overshoot of 2.75% beyond the 55 EMA): So if you're going to put a number on that, that would put Bitcoin somewhere down around about $73,000. ▶ 03:24
• 71.8k: Target (75th percentile overshoot of about 5.2%): So to put a number on that one, that would put Bitcoin somewhere around $71,750 or so. ▶ 03:55
• 66.3k: Target (90th percentile overshoot, called very unlikely): The 90th percentile, again, very, very unlikely. That would mean 10 percent of these overshoot in this fashion. That would put Bitcoin down around $66,300 almost. ▶ 04:00

Their own position: Bought, no leverage. So I'm going to be buying 100 derps of Bitcoin right now on the old Coinbase.

Dates named

• Friday CPI release on 11 Sep 2026: Friday, CPI coming out, of course, and basically I'd give that one a coin. flip in terms of direction.
• FOMC rate decision, undated: What they care about is what it means for the Fed and the FOMC.
• September 18 options expiry on 18 Sep 2026: In this case, I'm looking at September 18, which obviously is at the end of next week.