Bitcoin: Dubious Holiday Speculation

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: cycle went from leaning down to expecting down.

Views

• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): Right now, we're kind of in that period of of dropping. ▶ 15:38 Said again while their call of 20 Dec 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 88.2k when said, 93.1k on 19 Jan 2026 (+5.5%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): So maybe Bitcoin revisits 100K and then that marks the macro lower high as we've seen before. ▶ 16:42 Said again while their call of 7 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 121.8k when said, 74.1k on 4 Feb 2026 (−39.2%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): Again, to me, that looks like a top for a while. ▶ 12:26 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If this, then that

• If the stock market finds a low in October 2026, then no target given (this cycle, by October 2026): you could argue that if the stock market finds a low October 2026, um then perhaps Bitcoin could could find a low then as well. ▶ 14:12

Levels named

• 100k: Target (50-week moving average is the likely target of a counter trend rally): And right now the 50week moving average is currently trading just above $100,000. So perhaps that'll be kind of the target whenever a counter trend rally gets underway. ▶ 17:01
• 74k: Target (Other): But you could also go to 74K before the rally to 100K occurs, right? ▶ 17:08
• 57k: Target (Bitcoin normally drops to the 200 EMA in bear markets, and it keeps rising): it's currently at around a little less than 57K, but by the summer it's going to be even higher. ▶ 18:13

Their own position: Not said.