cryptoLive Market Discussion: Stocks, Metals, Bitcoin - Rolling Down The Risk Curve
Benjamin Cowen · · 1:24:34 · Watch on YouTube
As of . Updated hourly as new videos are read.
BTC near publication: $67,3924-hour candle close · 17 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC · BTC/USDT
ETH near publication: $1,9694-hour candle close · 17 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC · ETH/USDT
On Bitcoin
Changed since their last video: days moved waiting to down; cycle went from expecting down to leaning down.
Views
- Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down:
A little bit of weakness for another week or so, some renewed strength potentially going into March and then another period of weakness going into April and May.
▶ 28:07 The call was right: 67.4k when said, 64k on 24 Feb 2026 (−5.1%). - Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up:
some renewed strength potentially going into March and then another period of weakness going into April and May.
▶ 28:09 Said again while their call of 13 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 68.7k when said, 71.5k on 15 Mar 2026 (+4.1%). - Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down:
another period of weakness going into April and May. That's what historically happens on average.
▶ 28:12 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%). - This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading):
is the October bottom the most probable scenario? I I think for now it is, but that could change.
▶ 36:12 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).
If this, then that
- If Bitcoin gets an outright major larger capitulation and is down even more, then no target given (this cycle):
if Bitcoin just gets an outright major larger capitulation where it's down even more, it's going to be hard to then be able to deterministically bearish going into October.
▶ 36:26
Their own position: Not said.
On Ethereum
Changed since their last video: months moved sideways to down.
Views
- Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down:
I would guess that some point later this year we'll see Ethereum sweep the low from you know, from June or from April of 2025.
▶ 1:22:01 Said again while their call of 26 Jan 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 2.82k when said, 2.11k on 26 May 2026 (−25.0%).
Their own position: Not said.