Bitcoin Just Did Something It's Only Done at 2014, 2018, and 2022 Lows

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: weeks moved down to sideways; months moved sideways to down; cycle moved waiting to up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): that is another at least short-term signal that Bitcoin's going to try at least a little bit of a bounce from here ▶ 05:44 Said again while their call of 29 May 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 73.8k when said, 60.4k on 5 Jun 2026 (−18.1%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Sideways: Um I expect Bitcoin to kind of level out here over the next week or two and then attempt to bounce. ▶ 15:29 The call was right: 63.9k when said, 62.9k on 4 Jul 2026 (−1.5%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: But ultimately, Bitcoin on the short to medium-term time frames is bearish for the exact same reason that we have been looking at on the ribbon ribbons for many months now ▶ 15:34 Said again while their call of 27 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 66.1k when said, 60.8k on 27 Jun 2026 (−8.0%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Expects up: This is where I am looking for Bitcoin on major long-term value, looking at investments to be held for at least 4 to 5 years from now. ▶ 02:02 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If quick wick down and then rally back above 60,000 on the monthly time frame, then no target given (this cycle): But if you see Bitcoin have a quick wick down and then rally back above 60,000 bucks on a monthly time frame, that's going to look really compelling to me to call a macro low. ▶ 06:55
• If if things really fail, then 39–43k (next months): Or, you know, if things really fail, then yeah, somewhere between 39 to 42 or 43. It's not my first scenario. ▶ 13:53

Levels named

• 73.3k: Resistance (bearish while price stays below the daily ribbon mid-band): as long as you're below the mid-band, which right now is 73,250. ▶ 15:43
• 69–70k: Resistance, expected to turn price back (daily ribbon mid-band expected to have fallen to this area by the time price tests it): that mid-band's going to come down to like 69 or 70,000 bucks. There there very likely will be a correction up around there. ▶ 16:12
• 43k: Target (0.786 level using a 6-month average of the 2022 low): Bitcoin currently on the 618, by the way, and uh and the 786 level would be about 43,000 bucks. ▶ 13:38
• 39.8k: Target (0.786 retracement from the 2022 low to the cycle high): well, the 786 would be all the way at 39,800. ▶ 13:05

Their own position: Bought. I have made my own purchases in Bitcoin over the past 24 to 48 hours