Bitcoin Technical Analysis vs Market Reality

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days moved waiting to up.

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• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): Short-term though, still potential for a rally into the deep 90s or low uh low 100s. ▶ 21:27 Said again while their call of 9 Dec 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 92.7k when said, 88k on 16 Dec 2025 (−5.1%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up: So, let's say over the next month, you know, probably buys towards the upside. ▶ 18:33 Said again while their call of 7 Dec 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 89.6k when said, 93.6k on 6 Jan 2026 (+4.6%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: at some point in the upcoming 3 to four months, I would be looking at Bitcoin coming down, you know, 35% from this this entry ▶ 15:25 Said again while their call of 16 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 111.4k when said, 67.2k on 13 Feb 2026 (−39.7%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): whatever rally we get from here however high it gets you know that's probably going to be a bull trap and we probably do have more downside to go ▶ 18:51 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 124.2k when said, 86.2k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.6%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin does not close above 95,338 by the end of tonight (5-day close), firing the 21/55 EMA downside cross, then 57.8k (next months, by by the end of tonight): does not close above 95,338 by the end of tonight, then you know at some point in the upcoming 3 to four months, I would be looking at Bitcoin coming down, you know, 35% from ▶ 15:21
• If Bitcoin closes here or lower by end of day, firing hidden bearish divergence, then no target given (next days, by by end of day): if Bitcoin closes here or lower by end of day. Um you know, if that does happen, I'm probably looking for Bitcoin to come back down to about 86 and a half to 87,000 bucks. ▶ 14:25

Levels named

• 106.2k: Target (HPDR median that price is expected to reconnect with): at that point I'm still looking for a reconnect of the median. The median right now is 106200 or so. ▶ 11:29
• 102–105k: Target (A 15-20% rally is what has historically followed this signal): if Bitcoin gets uh a 15 or 20% rally, you know, from this point, you know, that could put Bitcoin at around 102 to, you know, maybe even 105 ▶ 06:27
• 95.3k: Resistance (Close above it by end of day would prevent the 21/55 EMA downside cross on the 5-day): if if Bitcoin does fail to to rally back above 95,338 by end of day, again, less than 7 hours right now, then we will have effectively that cross. ▶ 05:06
• 90.6k: Resistance (Daily close above the 5-day red 5 EMA would make timing a bounce easier): as of right now, that red 5 EMA is 90,556. If Bitcoin could close above there today, again, before end of day ▶ 09:50
• 80.5k: Support, expected to hold (HPDR mean reversion and volatility contraction setup still valid, so no new closing lows before a bounce): the reason why I do not think Bitcoin will make new lows on a closing basis below the November lows of 80,500 before hopefully playing out something bigger of a bounce ▶ 10:42
• 50–60k: Target (Possible macro bottom zone if this cycle is indeed over): I think you're going to get some amazing opportunities between like 50 and 60, maybe as low as 40. ▶ 13:24
• 57.8k: Target (35% drop from the signal entry, as in past 21/55 EMA crosses): And that would give a proposed price somewhere around 57,750. ▶ 15:36

Their own position: Short. It's just shorting the 8070 put spread. Very simple stuff. Expiring on December 26, Elsa's birthday.

Dates named

• December 26 expiry of the 80/70 BTC put spread, max profit if BTC stays above 80,000 on 26 Dec 2025: Expiring on December 26, Elsa's birthday. Very easy to remember.