This Bitcoin Signal Hasn't Occurred In Over 3 Years

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: months flipped up to down.

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• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): but I am personally still biased towards a general bounce from this region. ▶ 02:44 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 95.6k when said, 86.3k on 24 Nov 2025 (−9.7%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down: So I do expect that we probably will see a try lower in about 2 weeks. ▶ 15:11 Said again while their call of 14 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 96.8k when said, 89k on 14 Dec 2025 (−8.0%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: Okay, not tomorrow obviously, but like you know months and months away from now, but that would be a general, you know, realistic target more long-term. ▶ 17:12 Said again while their call of 16 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 111.4k when said, 67.2k on 13 Feb 2026 (−39.7%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin closes below Tuesday's low, then no target given (next days): Tuesday's low was 89,250. Um uh otherwise well it's another big slide down I suppose. ▶ 07:53
• If Bitcoin is below the needed level at the end of November, producing a monthly MACD cross to the downside, then no target given (this cycle, by by the end of November): Bitcoin is below $975,000 US by the end of November, we're going to see an official MACD cross to the downside with a negative histogram. ▶ 16:02
• If Bitcoin trades below 96.5k, breaking the price action pivots trend line extension of the rising channel, then no target given (next months): 96 and a half thousand US. So also not great. Um seeing that this is a rising channel, there would be an implied move to be made off of this and that would be pointed down towards about 615,000 bucks. ▶ 16:59

Levels named

• 100.4k: Target (0.618 retracement, a stretch bounce target): Uh the 618 is all the way just above $100,000 at 100,431. ▶ 09:28
• 98.3k: Target (50% retracement bounce target): The 50% retracement level is 98250. So both of these are, I think, fair game. ▶ 09:23
• 96–97k: Target (HPDR mean reversion median, drifting lower each day): by the time Bitcoin actually does hit, it might be like 96 or 97. ▶ 07:01
• 96k: Target (0.382 retracement bounce target): One of them is at the 382 level. That is again very very high probability area for a bounce generally um within an overall trending move, and that would be about 96,000 bucks. ▶ 09:13
• 93k: Resistance, expected to turn price back (top of the average gain for winning Thursdays): You can see Bitcoin has tested the top side of the average gain for winning Thursdays already and that was about 93,000 bucks ▶ 00:59
• 89.8k: Support (average loss on a losing Thursday; first-pass bounce expected): would give a price point of 89850, which Bitcoin is inching its way towards right now. ▶ 01:33
• 89.3k: Their view is wrong past this (bounce setup stays valid while price does not close below Tuesday's low): it is valid as long as Bitcoin is not closing below Tuesday's low. Tuesday's low was 89,250. ▶ 07:49
• 88k: Support, expected to hold (first test of the 3-day 200 SMA after a long time away usually bounces): but just wouldn't be expecting any like significant closures below it. And that is officially at 88,000 bucks. ▶ 03:20
• 82–83k: Target (bi-weekly red/yellow moving average setup historically leads to the green moving average): being biased towards a move towards like 82 83,000 bucks, very very very very likely. ▶ 14:39
• 82k: Support (next area of interest if 88k fails): And if that one fails, you got 82 somewhere around there. ▶ 11:04

Their own position: Bought, no leverage. I am getting buy signals right here. So I personally am adding to my long-term baggage.

Dates named

• Monthly close and monthly MACD cross at end of November on 30 Nov 2025: Bitcoin is below $975,000 US by the end of November, we're going to see an official MACD cross to the downside with a negative histogram.