Everything Rallied on the Fed News Except Bitcoin. [Kalshi Live Trading]

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days went from expecting down to leaning down.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): but until that happens downside remains more likely as Bitcoin remains below that uh that revan ribbon's midband and the next area of interest is 62,200 to the downside ▶ 17:55 Said again while their call of 10 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was a draw: 64.3k when said, 64.2k on 17 Aug 2026 (−0.2%), under the 1% it takes to count.
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down: short-term, medium-term, I do need to maintain that bearish bias as long as Bitcoin is below the Revan Ribbons indicator. ▶ 25:40 Said again while their call of 13 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 63.4k when said, 77.4k on 12 Sep 2026 (+22.0%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin reclaims 64600, flipping short and medium-term bias to the upside, then 67k (next weeks): 64600 is still that line in the sand for Bitcoin to reclaim that would flip my bias in the short term and medium-term to the upside. side still looking at a move towards 67,000 bucks ▶ 17:45
• If Bitcoin breaks 62,200 on a daily close, then no target given (next days): 62,200 to the downside if Bitcoin breaks that on a daily closing basis we do have to entertain the highly probable move of if we just go straight into the charts ▶ 18:00
• If Bitcoin reclaims the August 8th high at 65444 even on a wick basis, a breakout and reversal, then 67k (next days): reclaiming the August 8th high at about 65444, that previous uh lower high rejection, that would certainly do it for me. And at that point, I'm looking at 67 and probably uh probably north of there, too. ▶ 27:13
• If Bitcoin closes below about 59,300 or 59,500 on a weekly, then no target given (next months): if Bitcoin closed below about 59,300 or 59,500 on a higher time frame like a weekly, okay, yeah, sure. You know, I'm wrong. It's going to, you know, we are very likely going to see much much much lower. ▶ 23:13

Levels named

• 67k: Target (Other): side still looking at a move towards 67,000 bucks ▶ 17:51
• 65.4k: Resistance (August 8th lower high rejection): reclaiming the August 8th high at about 65444, that previous uh lower high rejection, that would certainly do it for me. ▶ 27:13
• 64.6k: Resistance (Revan ribbons midband; reclaiming it flips the bias): 64600 is still that line in the sand for Bitcoin to reclaim that would flip my bias in the short term and medium-term to the upside. ▶ 17:45
• 64.2k: Support (CME weekly 200 simple moving average at risk of being lost): if Bitcoin does finish below 64176 on CME within that time frame, then yes, we got some problems here. ▶ 10:40
• 62.2k: Support (August 1st low): the next area of interest is 62,200 to the downside if Bitcoin breaks that on a daily closing basis ▶ 18:00
• 60.6–61.8k: Target (next Revan ribbons target (blue box) if 62,200 breaks): the next Reban ribbons target which would be between about 60,600 and 61800 and that would just be like a short-term move ▶ 18:12
• 59.3–59.5k: Their view is wrong past this (weekly close below invalidates his not-fully-bearish view): if Bitcoin closed below about 59,300 or 59,500 on a higher time frame like a weekly ▶ 23:13

Their own position: Short, with leverage. so I shorted 10 Bitcoin at 63850 or about there for an average price.

On Ethereum

Changed since their last video: days went from leaning down to expecting down.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Expects down (timeframe is our reading): I'd expect to see it back down to like 17 to 1750 or so at least. ▶ 1:36:10 Said again while their call of 10 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 1.88k when said, 1.91k on 17 Aug 2026 (+1.9%).

Levels named

• 1.82k: Support (previous low and range low): as long as it's holding above that previous low at 1820 it's a hard one to hate. ▶ 1:35:57

Their own position: No position. I say this as someone who doesn't own any Ethereum, who doesn't care about Ethereum

Dates named

• Soft retail sales data cut September rate hike odds, undated: soft data just killed the September hike, or at least that's what it seems like right now.